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EURUSD
The EUR/USD pair is finishing Tuesday a handful of pips below the 1.1300 level, down for the day but off its daily low of 1.1258. The American currency appreciated intraday on the back of a downbeat market mood throughout the first half of the day, with Asian and European indexes closing in the red. In the US, the Nasdaq reached a fresh all-time high, but the DJIA and the S&P posted substantial losses. Coronavirus-related headlines drove the sentiment down, as the number of new cases not only in the US continues to increase.
The macroeconomic calendar had little to offer, as Germany published May Industrial Production, which missed the market’s expectations, up by 7.8% in the month and down by 19.3% when compared to a year earlier. The US, on the other hand, released the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, which resulted in 44 in July, down from the previous 47, and the May JOLTS Job Opening report, which improved to 5.397M in the month. This Wednesday, the EU will publish the EU Commission Economic Growth Forecasts, relevant in the current pandemic context. The US won’t publish relevant macroeconomic data.
The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1280 ahead of the Asian opening, maintaining a positive tone in the short-term but lacking bullish momentum. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is comfortable above a Fibonacci level at 1.1270 and above all of its moving averages, while technical indicators are directionless within positive levels. The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.1310 but would need to break above the weekly high at 1.1345 to gain bullish potential.
Support levels: 1.1270 1.1220 1.1170
Resistance levels: 1.310 1.1345 1.1390
USDJPY
The USD/JPY pair is ending a fourth consecutive day around the 107.50 level, unable to leave its comfort zone in a risk-averse environment. The high levels of uncertainty related to the future of major economies are behind the pair’s lack of direction these days, as the ongoing pandemic gives no sign of receding. Instead, the number of global cases approaches to 12 million, while countries that had reopened early are establishing partial lockdowns amid new outbreaks.
In the data front, Japan published at the beginning of the day the preliminary estimate of the May Leading Economic Indicator, which unexpectedly improved to 79.3 from 77.7, better than the 73.2 expected. The Coincident Index, for the same period, however, contracted to 74.6 from 80.1. The country also published Overall Household Spending, down by 16.2% in the year to May. This Wednesday, Japan will publish its May Trade Balance and the Current account for the same month, while later into the session, it will unveil the June Eco Watchers Survey.
The USD/JPY pair maintains its neutral stance in the short-term, hovering around the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily decline at 107.50. In the 4-hour chart, moving averages remain directionless, with the pair currently converging with the 20 and 200 SMA. The 100 SMA, stands at around 107.20, providing an intraday dynamic support- Technical indicators in the meantime, remain stuck around their midlines. The pair has better chances of rallying on a break above 107.95, the immediate resistance.
Support levels: 107.20 106.95 106.60
Resistance levels: 107.95 108.30 108.65
GBPUSD
The GBP/USD pair surged to 1.2591 its highest in four weeks, finishing the US session in the 1.2550 area. The pound surged on the dollar’s broad weakness and despite the lack of progress in Brexit talks. The American dollar, on the other hand, remained on the back foot against most of its major rivals. The UK published Halifax House Prices, which printed at -0.1% in June, better than anticipated. In the Brexit front, UK’s David Frost and EU’s Barnier have resumed trade talks in London. News on that front could be out during the first hours of Asian trading. This Wednesday, the UK will publish the RICS Housing Price Balance for June.
The GBP/USD pair is bullish in the short-term and according to the 4-hour chart, as it has found support around its 100 and 200 SMA, both converging around 1.2450, now holding well above all of its moving averages. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have partially lost their positive momentum, but continue to head higher within positive levels. The pair has multiple intraday highs in the 1.2590 price zone, with stops likely accumulated above the level.
Support levels: 1.2520 1.2485 1.2440
Resistance levels: 1.2595 1.2630 1.2680
AUDUSD
The AUD/USD pair is finishing Tuesday with modest losses in the 0.6950 price zone, retreating from a daily high of 0.6997. The Aussie ignored the RBA monetary policy announcement, as the central bank left its cash rate unchanged at 0.25% as widely anticipated. As they did in their previous meeting, policymakers said that the downturn has been less severe than earlier expected, yet at the same time, remained cautious about longer-term developments amid uncertainty related to the coronavirus pandemic.
Instead, the Aussie fell on news that the government announced a six weeks lockdown in all Metropolitan Melbourne and other surrounding cities amid a new outbreak with 191 new COVID-19 CASES reported. Australia won’t release macroeconomic data this Wednesday.
The AUD/USD pair is neutral in the short-term, although the downside potential remains limited amid broad dollar’s weakness. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is struggling to hold above its 20 SMA, but well above the larger ones, while technical indicators have pared their slides and stabilized around their midlines. A steeper decline could be expected on a break below the 0.6895 support, although buyers may likely reappear ahead of the 0.6800 threshold.
Support levels: 0.6930 0.6895 0.6850
Resistance levels: 0.6995 0.7020 0.7060
SILVER
Silver once again failed to capitalise the bull-run seen in Gold and capped at 18.38$ resistance. The move seen in Gold was mostly supported by the retracement seen in the US 10-year yields. The world meantime saw a record rise in new Coronavirus cases over the past 24 hours according to the World Health Organisation (WHO), with over 212,000 people infected on Sunday led by records in the US, Brazil, and India. However, Silver trading is much more influenced by its industrial metal label as fears of a delay in normalisation in global industrial production is suppressing Silver prices.
As 16.97$ (%50.0 14.29$-19.65$) stands as critical support, below this level, a test of 16.33$ (%61.8 14.29$-19.65$) and 15.55$ (%76.40 14.29$-19.65$) can be targeted. On the top side, over the 17.60$ (%38.20 14.29$-19.65$) resistance, 18.38$ (%23.6 14.29$-19.65$), 18.90$ (January and February peak zone) and 19.67$ (2019 peak) can be followed as targets up.
Support Levels: 16.97$ 16.33$ 15.55$
Resistance Levels: 18.38$ 18.70$ 18.90$
CRUDE WTI
The August futures on Nymex is hovering around 40.00$ which has been tested numerous times since June. As the spike in coronavirus new cases in the US and Australia has led to regional lockdowns, the partial lockdowns will likely curb the expectations of a quick economic recovery and its resultant impact on the demand for oil and its products. On the other hand, on the Canadian side of the border, crude could come under pressure as the US Supreme Court blocked construction of the Keystone XL pipeline in the US, which would delay the project into 2021, increasing the project's risk profile ahead of the US election. At this point, OPEC’s effort to limit oil supply is not helping the prices to overcome 40.00$ amid fears of a new peak in the first wave of the pandemic and second wave afterwards.
A decisive move over 32.81$ (65.62$-0.00$ %50) might carry WTI to 40.56$ (65.62$-0.00$ %61.80), 50.00$ and 54.00 levels. Below the 32.81$ level, 31.00$, 27.40$ (9th of March dip) and 26.00$ levels can be targeted.
Support Levels: 31.00$ 27.40$ 26.00$
Resistance Levels: 40.56$ 50.00$ 54.00
DOOWWOWO
Wall Street had an interesting trading day on Tuesday as Nasdaq printed a new all-time high before retracing back heavily. On the other hand, Dow Jones failed to advance its move over 26.000 level and lost %1.51 on a daily basis. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), with over 212,000 people infected on Sunday led by records in the US, Brazil, and India as a new record high. While some states in the US are re-imposing countermeasures, Trump decisively states to keep the economy open. Lately, the erratic behaviour of the risk appetite created a volatile environment for Wall Street. While traders prefer to cheer FED’s efforts and better than expected macro-data readings, sometimes the reality of the pandemic which never vanished kicks into markets erasing gains.
Below the 25.000 level, 24.719 (21.712-29.585 %61.80) 23.500 and 23.000 levels can be followed as support levels while a steady close over 25.667 (21.712-29.585 %50) will most likely to carry Dow Jones to 26.000, 26.577 (21.712-29.585 %38.200) and 27.000 levels.
Support Levels: 25.000 24.719 23.500
Resistance Levels: 26.000 26.577 27.000
XAAAUUUUSD
Gold finally made its much-awaited attempt to break 1.800$ and the move ended a tick below the important level at 1.797$. While the USD index DXY at least kept its level close to 97.00, US Treasury prices moved higher with yields continuing to dip. The US 10-year stands at 0.651%, the lowest since June 30. Gold, hitting its highest level since 2012 is having a great year despite the sharp pull-back seen in March triggered by the need for cash to fund the melting positions in Wall Street. Today’s move was also supported by the risk aversion as Wall Street retraced back amid fears of rising coronavirus cases and re-imposing of countermeasures in the US, Spain and Australia.
A decisive close over 1.785$ (2012 multi-time peak) will most likely to carry Gold over 1.800$, 1.822$ and 1.920$ (all-time high) levels. Below the 1.765$, the supports can be followed at 1.750$(December 2012 peak), 1.738$ (April double top) and 1.700$.
Support Levels: 1.750$ 1.738$ 1.700$
Resistance Levels: 1.800$ 1.822$ 1.920$
MACROECONOMIC EVENTS
* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.
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