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EURUSD
The EUR/USD pair closed the week in the red just below the 1.1800 level, after reaching a fresh two-year high of 1.1965 and rallying in the previous eight consecutive weeks. The dollar had no much reason to appreciate but strengthened after reaching extreme oversold conditions coupled with profit-taking ahead of the weekend. Friday’s macroeconomic data put additional pressure on the pair, as the Union’s growth “lost momentum,” according to Markit. The Manufacturing PMI for the mentioned period contracted to 51.6 from 54.9 in July, a two-month low, while services output was down to 50.1 from 54.7. US figures, on the other hand, beat expectations, with services output up to 54.8 from 50 and the Manufacturing PMI improving to 53.6 from 50.9. Even further, Existing Home Sales in July surged 24.7%, much better than expected.
Meanwhile, the coronavirus pandemic keeps spreading with an alarming increase of new cases in Europe, lead by Spain and followed by France and Germany. In the US, the number of new daily cases is below the over 70K peak but remains around 50K. However, and as long as no lockdowns are announced, the news would have little impact on currencies. This Monday, the macroeconomic calendar will be quite light, as Germany will publish the Buba Monthly Report while the US will unveil the July Chicago Fed National Activity Index.
The EUR/USD pair may extend its corrective decline during the upcoming sessions, as the daily chart shows that it settled just below its 20 SMA, although it’s still far above the larger ones. Technical indicators in the mentioned time-frame keep heading firmly lower, but are still above their midlines. In the 4-hour chart, the pair has fallen below its 20 and 100 SMA, with the shortest gaining bearish traction, while technical indicators have bounced modestly from oversold readings, holding well into the red.
Support levels: 1.1760 1.1710 1.1665
Resistance levels: 1.1820 1.1860 1.1915
USDJPY
The USD/JPY pair heads into the weekly opening trading below in the 105.70 price zone, down last week but off a monthly low at 105.09. The pair traded as high as 106.06 on Friday, underpinned by robust US economic data and the positive tone of Wall Street. It later retreated on demand for safety, weighed by falling US Treasury yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note settled at 0.63% just above its weekly low. Despite encouraging macroeconomic data, uncertainty about future economic developments persist.
Japan published its July National CPI, with the core reading remaining flat when compared to a year earlier, missing the market’s expectations of 0.1%. The August preliminary estimate of the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PM recovered from 45.2 in July to 46.6, still in contraction territory. Data continues to reflect the sharp economic contraction in the country.
The USD/JPY pair is neutral-to-bearish according to the daily chart, as it settled around a bearish 20 SMA while the larger ones remain above the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, lost directional strength, the Momentum around its 100 level and the RSI at 45. In the shorter-term, and according to the 4-hour chart the technical picture is quite alike, as the pair is trading between directionless 20 and 100 SMA, as indicators turned lower around their midlines.
Support levels: 105.60 105.25 104.85
Resistance levels: 106.05 106.45 106.80
GBPUSD
The GBP/USD pair finished the week unchanged in the 1.3080 price zone, retreating from the year high at 1.3266 tested mid-week. By the end of the week, the UK released encouraging macroeconomic figures, starting with July Retail Sales, which were up 3.6% MoM and 1.4% YoY. Markit reported the “sharpest increase in UK private sector output” in almost seven years in August, as the Manufacturing PMI recovered to 55.3 from 53.3, while the services index came in at 60.1 from 56.5 final in July. The UK also published the CBI Industrial Trends Survey on orders, which resulted in -44%, worse than the -35% expected. The survey, however, showed that the pace of the decline has eased.
Brexit-related news, however, were not that good. A UK senior official said that a deal with the EU is still doable in September if they remove unnecessary obstacles, yet another round of negotiations ended without progress. EU’s chief negotiator Barnier said that a deal would not be easy to achieve, adding he is disappointed and surprised that talks are not speeding up. The UK won’t release macroeconomic data this Monday.
The daily chart for the GBP/USD pair shows that it settled just above a bullish 20 SMA, which continues to advance above the larger one. Technical indicators, however, have continued to retreat, with the Momentum pressuring its midline. In the 4-hour chart, the risk is skewed to the downside, as the pair is trading below its 20 and 100 SMA, while technical indicators hold near oversold readings. The pair has an immediate support level at 1.3060, with a break below it exposing a more relevant one at 1.2980.
Support levels: 1.3060 1.3025 1.2980
Resistance levels: 1.3130 1.3175 1.3220
AUDUSD
The AUD/USD pair has continued to lose ground on Friday, closing the week unchanged at 0.7160, as demand for the greenback remained firm. Despite being unable to sustain gain, the pair remains near the year high set at 0.7205, and with its bearish potential limited, somehow indicating that the current dollar’s advance is a mere correction.
On Friday, Australia released the preliminary estimate of July Retail Sales, which were up 3.3% when compared to the previous month. The country also released the preliminary estimates of August Commonwealth Bank PMIs, which were worse than July final figures. Australia won’t publish macroeconomic data this Monday.
The daily chart for the AUD/USD pair shows that it holds within familiar levels, neutral-to-bearish. It hovers around a mildly bullish 20 SMA, although the 100 SMA advances above the 200 SMA both below the current level. The Momentum indicator remains directionless around its midline, while the RSI heads firmly lower yet around 53, falling short of confirming a bearish extension ahead. In the shorter-term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair is at risk of extending its decline, as it settled below its 20 and 100 SMA, while technical indicators barely bounced from near oversold readings. The bearish potential will likely gain strength on a break below 0.7135, the immediate support level.
Support levels: 0.7135 0.7090 0.7050
Resistance levels: ‘.7200 0.7245 0.7280
GOLD
The USD index DXY made a sharp reversal through mid-93 levels on Friday and pressured Gold prices. The yellow metal failed to sustain its post-FOMC recovery and failed to overtake the 1.950$ level with the USD gaining traction. Despite the move-up in the DXY, 10-year treasury yield kept its decline and retreated to %0.63. On the other hand, the FOMO-Fear of missing out rally is still intact in Wall Street as the extreme liquidity supplied by the FED is carrying out the markets beyond their value.
On Wednesday, Durable Goods Orders will be featured in the US economic docket. The main focus will be on Kansas City Fed's annual central banking conference, the Jackson Hole Symposium. On Thursday, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, will be discussing the Fed's monetary policy framework in his opening remarks. On Thursday the weekly initial jobless claims data with Gross Domestic Product Annualized(Q2) PREL in the US will be followed by Powelss’s speech.
As long as Gold stays over 1.950$, the targets upside can be followed at 1.980$ (previous all-time high), 2.000$ and 2.040$ levels. Below the 1.950$ the supports can be followed at 1.920$, 1.900$ and 1.825$ (2011 August close) levels.
Support Levels: 1.920$ 1.900$ 1.825$
Resistance Levels: 1.980$ 2.000$ 2.040$
SILVER
Silver also followed the same fashion as Gold and failed to sustain its move over the 27.00$ zone on Friday. Silver lost its steam alongside Gold as it lacked a fresh catalyst from the demand side. The industrial production globally is still lacking pace and it affects the physical demand of Silver. Also, as an important indicator, Silver Miners (NYSE:SIL) hit an important peak point this week. Due to its historic data, each hits back in 2013 and 2016 ended with %70 price crash. However, the current monetary conditions are clearly in favour of the precious metals compared to 2013 and 2016.
If Silver manages to stay over 27.00$, next targets upside might be followed at 29.28$ (March 2013 resistance) and 30.00$ levels. Below the 27.00$ level, the supports might be followed at 25.00$, 24.00$ and 23.38$ levels.
Support Levels: 25.00$ 24.00$ 23.38$
Resistance Levels: 27.00$ 29.28$ 30.00$
CRUDE WTI
WTI is keeping its incline inch by inch finding a solid base over the 42.00$ level. While OPEC+ is trying to balance the lack of demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic, also the uncertainty surrounding the direction of the pandemic is pressuring the prices. On Thursday, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its allies, the group is known as OPEC+ said, as per Reuters, “OPEC+ sees an alternative scenario where stronger, more prolonged second virus wave in H2 2020 leads to lower economic recovery and weaker oil demand." The news additionally revealed, "OPEC+ alternative scenario sees demand falling by 11.2 million BPD in 2020, sending Q4 OECD commercial oil stocks to 233 million barrels above the 5-year average.". At this stage, the PMI data sets from the leading economies can be closely monitored as a catalyst for move up.
If WTI manages to hold over 42.00$, next targets upside can be followed at 44.00$ (February 2020 low), 48.64$ (March 2020 high) and 50.00$. Below the 42.00$ level, supports can be followed at 41.00$ and 40.00$ consolidation zone.
Support Levels: 42.00$ 41.00$ 40.00$
Resistance Levels: 44.00$ 48.64$ 50.00$
DOW JONES
Dow Jones ended the week virtually almost not changed with the help of better than expected PMI and housing data sets in the US last Friday. On the other hand, the tech-led rally is still intact and lifted Nasdaq to its new all-time highs. As there is still no deal on the second stimulus programme. Due to a Reuters poll, the economy needs another round of fiscal stimulus ahead of the upcoming presidential election to preserve jobs as 100 economists suggest. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly climbed back above one million last week, the official data released on Thursday showed.
On the data side, Durable Goods Orders will be released in the US on Wednesday. However, the main focus will be on Kansas City Fed's annual central banking conference, the Jackson Hole Symposium. Also, on Thursday, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, will be discussing the Fed's monetary policy framework in his opening remarks. On Thursday the weekly initial jobless claims data with Gross Domestic Product Annualized(Q2) PREL in the US will be followed by Powel’s speech.
From the technical point of view, over the physiological 28.000 level, 28.400 can be followed as next resistance while below 27.770 level the supports can be seen at 27.400, 27.000 and 26.757 (24.680-27.400 %23.60) levels.
Support Levels: 27.700 27.400 27.000
Resistance Levels: 28.400 29.000 29.500
MACROECONOMIC EVENTS
* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.
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