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EURUSD
The American currency retained its bullish tone this Wednesday, resulting in EUR/USD falling to a daily low of 1.1821. Market players remained moderately optimistic, with the sentiment suffering a setback from the US ADP survey, which showed that the private sector added 428K new jobs, below the 950K expected, although better than the previous 212K. Factory Orders in July, beat estimates, rising 6.4% MoM. Nevertheless, the dollar remained strong and so did Wall Street, closing well in the green and after reaching
The shared currency meanwhile was hit by comments from ECB’s Committee member Lane, who said the “euro-dollar rate does matter," after the pair hit 1.20 earlier this week. In the data front, German Retail Sales unexpectedly fell in July 0.9% MoM against a 0.5% advance expected, although the year-on-year figure beat estimates, up 4.2%.
Thursday will bring the final versions of August Markit Services PMIs for both economies, while the EU will publish July Retail Sales seen up by 1.5% in the month. The focus, during US trading hours, will be employment-related data ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll report, including Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 28, foreseen at 950K. The country will also publish the ISM Services PMI for August, expected unchanged at 54.8.
The EUR/USD pair has shed roughly 200 pips from weekly tops but gives no signs of changing course at the time being. The 4-hour chart shows that it has broken below its 20 and 100 SMAs, with the shorter one turning south. Technical indicators, in the meantime, extend their slides within negative levels, supporting a bearish continuation during the upcoming sessions. A strong static support level comes at 1.1760, where the pair met buyers last week.
Support levels: 1.1805 1.1760 1.1710
Resistance levels: 1.1865 1.1910 1.1950
USDJPY
The USD/JPY traded as high as 106.29 this Wednesday, underpinned by the persistent dollar’s demand. The pair peaked during US trading hours, even though US data failed to impress. Rising equities helped to keep the pair afloat, but lower government debt yields capped the upside. Treasury yields started the day with a positive tone, but shed ground as the day went by, ending it in the red, with that on the 10-year note down to 0.64%.
News at the beginning of the day showed that Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga announced his candidature to replace PM Abe. Suga is among the favorite candidates towards the election vote to take place next September 14. Should he be elected the next Prime Minister, the most likely scenario is that he will continue the current policy. Early Thursday, Japan will publish the Jibun Bank Services PMI for August, previously at 45.4.
The USD/JPY pair has continued to advance, but it is unclear whether it could move further up. The 4-hour chart shows that it settled above all of its moving averages, which remain in a well-limited range. The 20 SMA has turned higher but remains below the larger ones. The RSI indicator grinds slowly higher currently at 57, but the Momentum indicator eased within positive levels. The pair would be better poised to extend its advance once above 106.35, the immediate resistance level.
Support levels: 105.90 105.50 105.10
Resistance levels: 106.35 106.70 107.10
GBPUSD
The Sterling Pound was unable to resist the dollar’s renewed demand, falling as low as 1.3282 to finally settle around 1.3330. Additional pressure came from the BOE as the central bank presented its annual report. Deputy Governor Ramsden said that policymakers could step up the pace of quantitative easing if needed. "We could do it fast if market dysfunction required it." Governor Bailed added that it's very important for the BoE's framework to be robust enough so they can "go big and go fast."
Earlier in the day, the UK published the Nationwide Housing Price Index, which rose 3.7% in August, beating estimates. This Thursday, Markit will publish the final version of the UK Services PMI, foreseen unchanged from the preliminary estimate at 60.1.
The GBP/USD pair has not yet turned bearish, although, in the short-term, the risk of a bearish extension has increased. In the 4-hour chart, the pair has broken below its 20 SMA, which lost bullish strength. Technical indicators have continued to retreat from overbought readings, but are currently struggling to extend their declines into the negative territory, having lost their bearish momentum within neutral levels.
Support levels: 1.3280 1.3235 1.3190
Resistance levels: 1.3370 1.3410 1.3460
AUDUSD
The AUD/USD pair is ending Wednesday in the red around 0.7325, amid renewed dollar’s demand coupled with worse than expected Australian data. The country’ Q2 gross domestic product shrank by 7%, worse than the 6% expected. The year-on-year reading printed at -6.3% against the -5.3% forecast. The pair managed to hold above the 0.7300 level as Wall Street’s robust advance partially offset Aussie’s weakness.
During the upcoming Asian session, Australia will publish the AIG Performance of Construction Index for August, previously at 42.7, and the Commonwealth Bank Services PMI for the same month, expected at 48.1. Later into the session, the country will publish the July Trade Balance.
The AUD/USD pair has room to extend its slide according to intraday technical readings. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is well below a now flat 20 SMA, although still above the 100 and 200 SMA, which maintain their bullish slopes. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head firmly lower within negative levels. The pair may attempt a corrective advance, yet as long as it holds below 0.7340, the risk will remain skewed to the downside.
Support levels: 0.7300 0.7265 0.7220
Resistance levels: 0.7340 0.7380 0.7415
GOLD
Gold rejected once again around the 1.980$ level as the reversal on the USD index DXY continued on Wednesday. The USD gained traction despite the worse than expected ADP private payroll data reading in the US. In its monthly report, the ADP Research Institute revealed that private sector employment in the US increased by 428,000 in August. This reading missed the market expectation of 950,000 by a wide margin. On a positive note, July's reading of 167,000 got revised up to 212,000. On the other hand, the risk mood around the globe continues to advance with the lead of Wall Street indexes. Reflecting the risk appetite which is fueled by the optimism about Covid-19 vaccine, hedge funds reduced long positions in Gold futures and options and added to short-positions reducing the net short held by the managed money category.
As long as Gold stays over 1.950$, the targets upside can be followed at 1.980$ (previous all-time high), 2.000$ and 2.040$ levels. Below the 1.950$ the supports can be followed at 1.920$, 1.900$ and 1.825$ (2011 August close) levels.
Support Levels: 1.920$ 1.900$ 1.825$
Resistance Levels: 1.980$ 2.000$ 2.040$
CRUDE WTI
WTI had a hit on Wednesday sliding below 42.00$ with a daily decline of %3.30. There was a decent pullback noted in the latest weekly round of Department of Energy data (DoE) in the US which was expected due to hurricane Laura and yesterday's API figure (-6.4mln) also hinted at the same. The market is also dealing with the increase in supply from the OPEC+ as the cartel is expecting the demand will grow in the short term. On the other hand, Iraqi Oil Minister HE Ihsan Abdul Jabbar Ismaael’s announcement that they are seeking an exemption from the OPEC and its allies (OPEC) output cut deal during the first quarter of 2021 put extra pressure on oil. Also, the current move-up has seen in USD pressured WTI due to the increase in its cost.
If WTI manages to hold over 42.00$, next targets upside can be followed at 44.00$ (February 2020 low), 48.64$ (March 2020 high) and 50.00$. Below the 42.00$ level, supports can be followed at 41.00$ and 40.00$ consolidation zone.
Support Levels: 42.00$ 41.00$ 40.00$
Resistance Levels: 44.00$ 48.64$ 50.00
DOW JONES
Dow Jones started Wednesday trading with a bullish gap and ended the day well over 29.000 level while S&P and Nasdaq printed new all-time highs. The reason for the rush to Wall Street can be öeasured through the income potential of the stocks vs 10-year yield. For each dollar invested in equity markets, companies earn an average of %3.6 vs %0.6 for 10-year yields as a result of ultra-cheap USD. The strong move up came despite the worse than expected ADP data in the US before the critical NFP data set on Friday. The private sector in the US added 428K new jobs, below the 950K, expected, although better than the previous 212K. Today the market will follow the weekly initial jobless claims.
From the technical point of view, if the index re-gains its ground over 29.000 level, 29.500 can be followed as resistance while 30.000 levels can be followed as new targets high. Below the 28.400 level, 28.000 and 27.770 can be followed as supports.
Support Levels: 28.400 28.000 27.770
Resistance Levels: 29.500 30.000 30.500
XAGAGAGAG
Silver also kept its losing streak on Wednesday along with Gold as the USD index kept its advance supported by the advancing risk appetite. Despite the Gold to Silver ratio retreats to 70.00 level, there is still room for Silver to outperform Gold as the long term average stands around 65.00 level. On the other hand, the demand for physical Silver is expected to keep on growing as the manufacturing sector normalises on a global scale. Therefore, every retracement seen in Silver can be an opportunity to buy for the long run.
If Silver manages to stay over 27.00$, next targets upside might be followed at 29.28$ (March 2013 resistance), 30.00$ and 32.00$ levels. Below the 27.00$ level, the supports might be followed at 25.00$ and 24.00$ levels.
Support Levels: 27.00$ 25.00$ 24.00$
Resistance Levels: 29.28$ 30.00$ 32.00$
MACROECONOMIC EVENTS
* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.
Please remember that trading financial markets carry a high degree of risk to your capital. It is possible to lose more than your initial stake. Leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors, therefore please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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