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EURUSD
The EUR/USD pair has fallen this Monday to a fresh September low of 1.1731, holding nearby as the US session comes to an end. Equities plummeted during the European session, dragging their American counterparts alongside. Resurgent coronavirus contagions in Europe and the announcement of local lockdowns spurred concerns about economic growth. Even further, and talking about this last, ECB’s President Lagarde said that the Union’s economic recovery remains “very uncertain, uneven and incomplete.”
The macroeconomic calendar was light, as the US only published the August Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which came in at 0.79, missing expectations of 1.95. This Tuesday, the focus will be on US Federal Reserve Chief Powell, who will testify on the CARES Act before the House Financial Services Committee. The EU, on the other hand, will publish the preliminary estimate of September Consumer Confidence, foreseen unchanged from August reading at -14.7.
The EUR/USD pair is trading near the mentioned daily low heading into the Asian opening, firmly bearish according to intraday technical readings. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has finally moved away from its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining bearish strength below the larger ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head lower near oversold levels. The immediate support level is August monthly low at 1.1695, with a break below it probably resulting in a steeper decline.
Support levels: 1.1695 1.1660 1.1620
Resistance levels: 1.1760 1.1800 1.1845
USDJPY
The USD/JPY pair plunged to 103.99, its lowest since last March, bouncing sharply within US trading hours to end the day with gains around 104.80. Signs of a worsening pandemic and speculation about its effects on economic growth sent investors into safety during the European session, although the pair finally gave up to resurgent dollar’s demand. US Treasury yields, in the meantime, shed some ground but held within familiar levels ahead of Fed’s Powell testimony before Congress this Wednesday. Japanese markets will remain closed this Tuesday as the country celebrated the Autumnal Equinox Day.
The USD/JPY pair is trading around the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily slump, measured between 106.26 and the mentioned low at 103.99. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has recovered above its 20 SMA after spending a week below it, while technical indicators bounced from oversold reading to stand at positive levels. The 100 and 200 SMA, however, remain far above the current level, maintaining their bearish slopes. The pair would have better chances of rallying on a break above 105.40, the 61.8% retracement of the mentioned decline.
Support levels: 104.50 104.00 103.65
Resistance levels: 104.90 105.40 105.80
GBPUSD
The GBP/USD pair fell to 1.2778, approaching its September low of 1.2762. Sterling was hit by comments from the government’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, who said that if the current trend in rising cases continues, the UK could expect to see almost 50,000 new cases per day in mid-October. As a result, PM Boris Johnson is reportedly considering a national two-week lockdown, to stop the outbreak. Worth noting that the UK has already announced new restrictions in north-east England which came in force last week.
The UK didn’t release relevant macroeconomic data at the beginning of the week. On Tuesday, BOE’s Governor Bailey is due to speak at a webinar hosted by the British Chamber of Commerce. Also, the CBI will publish the Industrial Trends Survey on Orders, seen in September at -41% from -44% in the previous month.
The GBP/USD pair is trading around the 1.2800 level, maintaining its bearish stance. The 4-hour chart shows that the 20 SMA gains bearish traction over 100 pips above the current level, while the 100 SMA grind lower below the 200 SMA. The Momentum indicator bounced from daily lows but remains within negative levels, while the RSI indicator holds near oversold readings, all of which suggest further declines ahead.
Support levels: 1.2760 1.2715 1.1670
Resistance levels: 1.2815 1.2860 1.2900
AUDUSD
The Aussie fell against its American rival to 0.7198, weighed by a dismal mood that sent equities into the red while fueling greenback’s demand. Adding pressure on the Australian currency, bright metals plummeted on the dollar’s rally. Spot gold briefly fell below $1,900.00 a troy ounce, ending the day at around 1,905, its lowest settlement since late July. The Australian macroeconomic calendar has little to offer this week. Nevertheless, RBA’s Debelle is scheduled to offer a speech titled “the Australian economy and monetary policy.”
The AUD/USD pair trades near the mentioned daily low, biased lower according to intraday technical readings. The 4-hour chart shows that it has broken below its 200 SMA, while the 20 SMA accelerated lower and pierced the 100 SMA above the larger one, signaling strong selling interest. Technical indicators, in the meantime, stabilized near oversold readings, with no signs of downward exhaustion. The pair has a strong static support level at 0.7170, and a steeper decline should be expected on a break below it.
Support levels: 0.7170 0.7130 0.7090
Resistance levels: 0.7220 0.7250 0.7285
GOLD
After moving during weeks sideways around $1,950, XAU/USD dropped sharply. It recovered late during the American session, trimming losses but still finished almost 2% lower. Risk aversion did not boost the demand for gold but instead strengthened the U.S. dollar. Wall Street stock indexes finished off lows but significantly lower, increasing fears about the near-term outlook. Volatility reached weekly highs while Treasury yields remained steady. The sentiment around investors will likely continue to be the key driver in gold.
XAU/USD broke a consolidation range to the downside. The recovery from $1,880 back above $1,900 alleviated the bearish pressure, but still, the bias now points to further losses. Above the next resistance is seen at $1,935, followed by $1,975. Above $2,000 gold could resume the long term bullish trend. On the downside, now favored, below $1,900 more losses seem likely, initially to $1,880 and then to a test of the August low at $1,860. The next target might be seen above the $1,815 resistance.
Support Levels: $1,880 $1,860 $1,815
Resistance Levels: $1,930 $1,960 $1,978
SILVER
Silver dropped sharply on Monday, losing 8%. The move could have been exacerbated after many days of moving in a tight range. It bottomed slightly above that August low and then trimmed losses. Market sentiment turned bearish in Wall Street, and if that persists, silver will likely remain under pressure. The positive long term trend is still in place, but it has clearly lost strength. XAG/USD bias is now for an extension of the correction lower. The bullish long term outlook could limit the decline, as long as it avoids another liquidation. An improvement in market sentiment, a recovering in stocks and a less strong U.S. dollar would help stabilize XAG/USD over the next sessions.
From a technical perspective, the breakout to the downside leaves silver vulnerable to more losses in the short-term, particularly while below $25.95. A slide back under $24.00 would expose the August low at $23.35. The 20-day moving average is turning south favoring the bearish scenario. On the upside, a significant resistance is seen around $26.00. A daily close above $27.40 would open the doors to more gains, reinforcing the long term bullish trend.
Support Levels: $23.25 $22.80 $22.20
Resistance Levels: $25.00 $25.80 $ $26.60
CRUDE WTI
Crude oil prices fell considerably on Monday, with the West Texas Intermediate benchmark losing more than 3% and hitting a five-day low of $38.67 per barrel. The price of crude came under pressure amid expectations Libyan production will return to the market soon. Meanwhile, the increase of COVID-19 cases in Europe and the US revived global oil demand concerns. Additionally, risk aversion, reflected by a sell-off in Wall Street indexes, also weighed on WTI.
The short-term technical perspective has lost bullish momentum following recent price action, although WTI found support at $38.67 and bounced to the $39.50 area over the last hours, still posting a 3.3% daily loss. Below the daily low, next support is seen at the 100-day SMA, currently around $38.28. A loss of this level would likely increase the bearish pressure with next target last week’s low of $36.10. On the other hand, WTI needs to recover $40.10, 200-day SMA to retain the upward bias and attempt a move to the $41.40 area.
Support levels: $38.70 $38.30 $36.80
Resistance levels: $40.10 $40.30 $41.40
DOW JONES
US stocks plummeted on Monday tracking European equities down amid renewed concerns over the global recovery on the back of ever-increasing COVID-19 cases and lockdown measures. Meanwhile, US lawmakers remain in a stalemate over a coronavirus relief package, adding to the cautious, risk-averse environment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 511 points, or 1.84%, to close at 27,147. The DJIA however, managed to end off a session low of 26,715. The S&P 500 index dropped 38 points, or 1.16%, closing at 3,281. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 14 points, or 0.13% to close at 10,778, with tech stocks limiting the index decline.
The DJIA short-term technical perspective has turned slightly negative, although indicators have bounced from lows, alongside the index. The immediate support is seen at the 26,400-26,300 area, where the 100- and 200-day SMA hold after completing a bullish crossover. As long as the index holds above this area, the upside bias would remain favored. On the upside, last week’s lows around 27,400 have now turned into a resistance area, followed by the 20-day SMA at 28,050 and 28,400.
Support Levels: 27,000 26,300 26,000
Resistance Levels: 27,400 28,400 28,750
MACROECONOMIC EVENTS
* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.
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