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EURUSD
The EUR/USD pair plunged below the 1.1700 level this Tuesday, trading as low as 1.1691, a level last seen in July. Concerns about a second coronavirus wave hitting Europe maintained the shared currency under pressure, despite stocks pared their bleeding and better-than-expected EU data. The preliminary estimate of September Consumer Confidence printed at -13.9 from -14.7 in August.
In the US, Fed’s Chair Powell testified before a House special commission, noting that the US economy has remained resilient and that the banking system has held up well during the ongoing crisis. However, he also said that further economic progress would depend if they can control the virus and most likely will need fiscal support.
This Wednesday, Markit will release the preliminary estimates of its September PMIs for the EU and the US. Manufacturing output is generally seen better than in August, while services activity is seen improving in the EU but deteriorating in the US. Powell will testify
The EUR/USD pair is trading around the 1.1700 level, maintaining the bearish bias. The 4-hour chart shows that it remains below bearish moving averages, with the 20 SMA accelerating south, currently around 1.1800. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have bounced modestly from oversold levels, but lack directional strength. The risk remains skewed to the downside, with renewed selling interest below 1.1695 anticipating another leg south for this Wednesday.
Support levels: 1.1695 1.1660 1.1620
Resistance levels: 1.1725 1.1760 1.1800
USDJPY
The USD/JPY pair advanced for a second consecutive day, reaching a weekly high of 105.07, supported by the persistent dollar’s demand coupled with the better performance of equities. European and US indexes closed mixed, although most of them ended in the green, while those that closed in the red posted modest losses. US Treasury yields, in the meantime, ticked higher following Fed’s Powell first testimony before Congress.
Japan is returning from a long weekend with the release of the September preliminary estimate of the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, foreseen at 47.3 from 47.2 in August. The country will also publish the July All Industry Activity Index, expected at 3.3% from 6.1% previously, while BOJ’s Governor Kuroda is set to offer a speech.
The USD/JPY pair is trading near the mentioned daily high, consolidating above the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily decline at 104.85. In the 4-hour chart, the 20 SMA converges with the next Fibonacci level at 104.50, turning marginally higher, while the 100 and 200 SMA maintain their bearish slopes above the current level. Technical indicators remain within positive levels but losing their bullish strength.
Support levels: 104.85 104.50 104.00
Resistance levels: 105.40 105.80 106.10
GBPUSD
The GBP/USD pair edged sharply lower for a third consecutive day, trading as low as 1.2709, its lowest level since last July. The pair seesawed between gains and losses, hitting an intraday high of 1.2866 after BOE’s Governor Bailey said that mention of negative rates does not imply their use. Additionally, EU’s Barnier headed to London for informal trade talks, as Brexit negotiations are reportedly going “a bit” better. The pair started retreating after UK PM Johnson announced new coronavirus-related restrictions, which could last for up to six months. However, he said that this was “by no means a return to the full lockdown of March,” as the aim was to cause the minimum damage to lives and livelihood.
The UK published the CBI Industrial Trends Survey on Orders, which fell in September to -48% from -44%, worse than anticipated. This Wednesday, Markit will publish the September preliminary estimate of the UK Manufacturing PMI, foreseen at 54.3 from 55.2 previously, and the services index for the same month, expected at 56 from 58.8 in August.
The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.2730, maintaining the bearish stance as the US session comes to an end. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is developing below all of its moving averages, which accelerate south, indicating strong selling interest. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have stabilized near oversold readings, with no signs of downward exhaustion. A break below the mentioned daily low exposes the 1.2660 price zone, where the pair has the next strong static support area.
Support levels: 1.2710 1.2665 1.2620
Resistance levels: 1.2765 1.2820 1.2870
AUDUSD
The AUD/USD pair fell to 0.7153, its lowest in almost a month, as the dollar continued to gather momentum across the board. A modest advance in European and American stocks was not enough to keep the Aussie afloat. At the beginning of the day, RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle said that it is plausible that the worst is behind when referring to the economy. However, he also noted that a lower exchange rate would be beneficial for the local economy, indicating that intervening in the FX market is another policy option.
Wednesday will start with Australia publishing the preliminary estimate of August Retail Sales, and the Commonwealth Bank PMIs. Manufacturing activity and services output are both expected to have shrunk in the month into contraction territory.
The AUD/USD pair is trading in the 0.7160 price zone and could extend its slump during the upcoming hours, particularly if it remains unable to recover beyond the 0.7200 level. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is developing below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA accelerating below the 100 SMA and about to cross below the 200 SMA. Technical indicators remain near oversold readings but pared their declines.
Support levels: 0.7130 0.7085 0.7040
Resistance levels: 0.7190 0.7220 0.7260
GOLD
Gold fell for the second day in a row on Tuesday, but it managed to hold above Monday’s low. As the US dollar remains strong and investors look for caution (despite the recovery in Wall Street), XAU/USD will likely remain under pressure. The not so positive economic outlook and rising COVID-19 cases in many countries (UK PM Johnson announced new lockdown restrictions) weighed on market sentiment. Fed’s Chair Powell mentioned the economy has a long way before a complete recovery. Pressure on the U.S. Congress to act could be on the rise, but still, a political agreement between Republicans and Democrats before the presidential elections looks unlikely. An improvement in market sentiment could lift metals.
XAU/USD finished hovering around $1,900/oz, with a bearish bias and under pressure. The sharp decline that took place on Monday changed the short-term outlook from neutral to the downside. A test of the weekly low at $1,880 over the next sessions seems likely and then comes the August low at $1,860. A break lower could trigger more volatility. On the upside, a recovery above $1,945 would ease the pressure while a close above $1970 could activate the long term bullish trend.
Support Levels: $1,880 $1,860 $1,815
Resistance Levels: $1,925 $1,945 $1,978
SILVER
Metals lost ground again on Tuesday after a sharp decline on Monday. Since the beginning of the week, XAG/USD fell 8.4%. The downside pressure remains in place supported by risk aversion and the rally of the U.S. dollar. The greenback continues to be the top performer. As long as the dollar remains firm, silver could continue to be under pressure. Despite the recovery in equity prices on Tuesday, silver failed to post gains but on the positive side, held above Monday’s low. An improvement in risk sentiment would help metals but for the moment inventors appear to be waiting to see if the ongoing recovery in markets can hold over the next sessions.
So far, the decline in XAG/USD has been rejected from below $24.00 but the bearish momentum is still in place. A firm break under the mentioned level should leave silver vulnerable to more losses. The next strong support is seen at $23.20. On the upside, to overcome the negative tone in the short-term, silver needs to rise above $27.15. A consolidation above that level would change the outlook to the upside.
Support Levels: $23.70 $22.80 $22.20
Resistance Levels: $25.25 $25.80 $ $26.60
CRUDE WTI
Oil prices traded little changed on Tuesday, with the West Texas Intermediate benchmark consolidating just below $40 a barrel following a sharp fall the day before. WTI managed to halt the two-day sell-off that started on Friday and was fueled by renewed concerns over global oil demand on the back of the COVID-19 pandemic. Expectations of another weekly decline in US oil inventories in the wake of output disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico occasioned by Hurricane Sally also helped to pause the drop in prices.
The short-term technical perspective for WTI has turned neutral according to 4-hour indicators, while the price rests just above the 100-period SMA, which offers immediate support at $39.65. If the price breaks below this latter, the fall could extend to Monday’s low at $38.64. Next support is provided by the 100-day SMA at $38.40. On the other hand, the $40.00 psychological level that coincides with the 20- and 200-day SMAs, is the immediate resistance level to overcome. Beyond that level, last week’s high at the $41.40-45 area would be the next upside barrier.
Support levels: $39.65 $38.65 $38.40
Resistance levels: $40.00 $40.30 $41.40
DOW JONES
US stocks ended higher on Tuesday, snapping a four-day losing streak for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, despite lingering coronavirus concerns. The DJIA rose 140 points, or 0.52%, to close at 27,288. The S&P 500 gained 34 points, or 1.05%, to finish at 3,315. The Nasdaq Composite index added 184 points, or 1.71%, and finished at 10,963. Big tech companies were among the best performers.
The short-term technical perspective has improved slightly on the back of today’s bounce, although indicators remain below their midlines in the 4-hour chart. The 27,000 area remains as the main short-term support. A loss of this level could open the way to more losses, with the 200-day SMA standing as the next contention barrier around 26,300. On the other hand, the 27,400-27,500 range has turned into the immediate resistance area. A breakout here would improve the short-term perspective and pave the way to more gains. In that case, the next hurdles are seen at the 28,000 and 28,400 areas.
Support Levels: 27,000 26,300 26,000
Resistance Levels: 27,400 28,000 28,400
MACROECONOMIC EVENTS
* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.
Please remember that trading financial markets carry a high degree of risk to your capital. It is possible to lose more than your initial stake. Leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors, therefore please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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