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EURUSD
The EUR/USD pair is ending Monday little changed in the 1.2120 price zone, recovering from a daily low of 1.2078. Risk aversion led the way early Monday, directly linked to Brexit concerns. The dollar surged after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson menaced to put an end to negotiations. The EUR/USD pair recovered from the mentioned low as demand for the greenback remained subdued while Brexit talks were finally extended. It seems unlikely the pair would post relevant directional moves ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy announcement next Thursday.
The macroeconomic calendar has little to offer. Germany published October Industrial Production, which provided support to the shared currency as it rose by 3.2% MoM, beating expectations. This Tuesday, the European country will release the December ZEW Survey. Economic Sentiment is expected to have contracted further in the month. The EU will publish the final version of Q3 GDP, while the US will unveil minor employment-related figures.
The EUR/USD pair has posted a lower low and a lower high daily basis, the first sign of upward exhaustion that still needs additional confirmations. In the near-term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair is technically neutral. It is struggling around a mild bullish 20 SMA and still far above the larger ones, although the Momentum indicator is crossing its midline into negative territory. The RSI indicator also eases but holds above its 50 level.
Support levels: 1.2110 1.2070 1.2020
Resistance levels: 1.2175 1.2230 1.2280
USDJPY
The USD/JPY pair advanced to 104.30 but was unable to hold on to its intraday gains and finished the day around the 104.00 figure. The dollar met demand on risk-aversion early in Europe but turned negative as US investors reached their trading desks. The dollar was unable to hold on to early gains once the dust around Brexit settled, but the pair remained in the red due to Wall Street´s poor performance. US Treasury yields fell, reflecting the dismal market’s mood.
Japan published the preliminary estimate of the October Leading Economic Index, which came in at 93.8, better than the previous 93.3. The Coincident Index printed at 89.7, improving from an upwardly revised 84.8. This Tuesday, the country will publish the final version of its Q3 Gross Domestic Product and the November Eco Watchers Survey.
The USD/JPY pair is at risk of falling according to intraday technical readings. The 4-hour chart shows that it settled below bearish moving averages, with the 20 SMA accelerating south below the larger ones. Technical indicators remain below their midlines, with the latest recovery falling short of suggesting further gains ahead. The pair has an immediate support area in the 103.80/90 price zone but would need to clear the 103.50 level to gain bearish traction.
Support levels: 103.85 103.50 103.10
Resistance levels: 104.30 104.75 105.10
GBPUSD
Brexit-related headlines took their toll on GBP/USD, as the pair plunged to 1.2323, although later recovered towards the 1.3400 price zone. The pair gapped lower at the weekly opening amid weekend news indicating that the critical issues between the UK and the EU remain unsolved. Early Monday, news indicating that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was ready to pull out from Brexit talks sent the pound nose-diving across the board.
The tone changed later in the day, and so did the pair’s course. Brexit talks are said to continue until Wednesday, and it seems that the UK could back down on the controversial Internal Market Bill if a deal can be reached. Still, odds for a trade deal decreased following reports that divisions over fisheries in negotiations have deepened.
The UK will publish early in the Asian session the November BRC Like-For-LIKE Retail Sales, previously at 5.2% YoY. In the meantime, Brexit will remain in the eye of the storm.
The GBP/USD pair is ending the day in the red, in the 1.3390 area, and the 4-hour chart shows that the risk is skewed to the downside. The pair has accelerated its decline after breaking below its 20 SMA but has now recovered towards it. Technical indicators remain within negative levels, the Momentum still heading south but the RSI bouncing sharply from oversold readings.
Support levels: 1.3360 1.3310 1.3265
Resistance levels: 1.3405 1.3450 1.3505
AUDUSD
The AUD/USD pair has traded in a wider-than-usual range this Monday but closed the day unchanged around the 0.7430 level. The aussie fell on sentiment, and despite Australia published encouraging data at the beginning of the day. The November AIG Performance of Services Index resulted in 52.9, better than the previous 51.4. On a down note, China announced it suspended imports from another Australian beef supplier, adding another company to the list of banned commodities.
Australia will publish this Tuesday, November NAB’s Business Confidence, previously at 5, and NAB’s Business Conditions for the same month, previously at 1.
The AUD/USD pair offers a neutral-to-bullish stance in the near term, as it extended its yearly advance by a couple of pips to 0.7453. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is currently developing above a bullish 20 SMA, which keeps advancing below the larger ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have turned lower but remain within positive levels. The pair has room to break higher and extend its advance beyond 0.7500 should the risk sentiment improve in the upcoming sessions.
Support levels: 0.7415 0.7375 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7450 0.7490 0.7530
SILVER
Silver continued its move up as markets were under the influence of risk aversion mostly triggered by the Brexit and fiscal aid uncertainty. On the other hand, Silver managed to outperform Gold again as the Gold to Silver ratio slid below 76.00 level. Due to the latest Commitment of Traders-COT data, Silver speculators raised their bullish bets for the 4th time in five weeks. The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totalled a net position of 47,892 contracts in the data reported through December 01 2020. This was a weekly gain of 2,212 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,680 net contracts. The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 2,252 contracts (to a weekly total of 77,023 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) edged up by 40 contracts for the week (to a total of 29,131 contracts). At this point, Silver managed to move to the midsection of its consolidation range between $22.90 and $25.60. While the expected stimulus deal will most likely carry the precious metals to higher levels, Silver also might find extra support from the normalisation in the manufacturing sector.
Below the $22.90 level ($11.63-$29.86 38.20%), the supports can be followed at $20.75 ($11.63-$29.86 50.00%) and $18.42 ($11.63-$29.86 61.80%). Over the $22.90 level, the targets up can be followed at $25.21 ($11.63-$29.86 23.60%), $26.00 (August-September support), $27.00 and $28.00 levels.
Support Levels: $22.90 $20.75 $18.42
Resistance Levels: $25.21 $26.00 $27.00
CRUDE WTI
WTI retraced from its 9-month high on Monday in the aftermath of the OPEC+ meeting. OPEC+ announced on Thursday it will gradually increase its oil output by 500K BDP starting in January vs. the 2 MBDP originally planned as the second wave of the pandemic hit the demand hard. On the other hand, risk aversion dominated the markets on Monday while the precious metals gained traction, risk assets stayed under pressure. The vaccine optimism starts to fade away despite the emergency use of Pfizer vaccine is already approved in the UK while the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and EU’s European Medicines Agency (EMA) decisions on the coronavirus vaccines authorization expected this month as well.
Next supports can be seen at 45.00$, 43.88$ and 43.00$ respectively while the resistances can be followed at 47.00$ and 48.50$.
Support Levels: 45.00$ 43.88$ 43.00$
Resistance Levels: 46.00$ 47.00$ 48.50$
DOW JONES
Dow Jones had a technical correction on Monday while Nasdaq renewed its all-time high. Authorities in California, the most populous state in the country, on Monday compelled much of the state to close shop and stay at home the day after it reported a record 30,000-plus new coronavirus cases. As an addition to lockdown risks, the Trump administration started another wave of sanctions to Chinese officers despite the Biden administration’s much softer look on the issue. On the other hand, The U.S. Congress is likely to consider a one-week stopgap funding bill to provide more time for lawmakers to reach agreements in talks aimed at delivering COVID-19 relief and an overarching spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, Democratic aides said on Monday. On the vaccine side, it is highly expected that the Pfizer&BioNTech solution will get FDA approval in the coming weeks despite the logistics problems on storing and transporting the vaccine. Markets are stuck between the pandemic reality, vaccine optimism and stimulus uncertainty at the moment. Also, the year-end “Santa Rally” mood might create extra volatility in the coming days for the US markets.
From the technical point of view, if the index stays over 29,000, 29,500 and 30,000 levels can be followed as new targets high while below the 28,400 level, 28,000 and 27,770 can be followed as supports.
Support Levels: 28,400 28,000 27,770
Resistance Levels: 29,500 30,000 30,500
XXAUAU
In the aftermath of worse than expected NFP reading, Gold found extra demand while the USD index DXY continued its downbeat move below the 91.00 level. On the other hand, the Brexit drama seems like its coming to a bitter end as the European Union leaders are looking for a deal to be agreed upon before the European Council meeting on Thursday. The event is also supporting the Gold demand as a risk driver. Also, the Trump administration is set to continue its campaign against China in the final days of its administration which contributed to risk aversion paying no regard to how the Biden administration will conduct its foreign policy. On the other hand, despite the risk aversion mood in the markets, an initial stimulus package of around $1 trillion USD disappoints Gold bulls as the democrat’s proposal was at $2 trillion levels. While the US equities gave away some of their record-high gains, the US 10-year yield retraced from its current peak at 0.97%.
From the technical point of view, below the $1,860 level, the supports can be followed at $1,763 ($1,451-$2,075 61.80%) and $1,700 levels. Over the $1,860 level, the resistances can be followed at $1,900 with $1,956 ($1,451-$2,075 38.20%) and $2,000 levels.
Support Levels: $1,860 $1,763 $1,700
Resistance Levels: $1,900 $1,956 $2,000
MACROECONOMIC EVENTS
* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.
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