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EURUSD
The EUR/USD pair is marginally lower ahead of the Asian opening, trading near a daily low of 1.1204. Once again, financial markets depended on Brexit-related headlines, although movements were quite limited even in GBP/USD. The EUR/USD pair spent the day within a tight 30 pips’ range. Equities held around their opening levels, with European indexes putting in modest gains. Wall Street advanced after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she is hopeful of getting a coronavirus relief deal.
The EU published its GDP’s final reading, which was downwardly revised to 12.5%. Germany published the ZEW survey, showing that the Economic Sentiment in the country contracted further in December, to -66.5 from -64.3. For the EU, the sentiment improved to 54.4 from 32.8, much better than anticipated.
The US released minor figures, the November NIFB Business Optimism Index, which resulted at 101.4. The country also released Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, which rose by 4.6%, and Unit Labor Cost decreased in the same quarter by 6.6%. This Wednesday, Germany will publish the October Trade Balance, while the US won’t offer relevant macroeconomic figures.
The EUR/USD pair is poised to extend its decline, according to intraday technical readings. The 4-hour chart shows that a flat 20 SMA around 1.2130 provided intraday resistances throughout the day, although the pair keeps developing well above a bullish 100 SMA. The Momentum indicator is hovering below its 100 level, while the RSI indicator consolidates around 52. A bearish corrective extension seems more likely on a break below 1.2078, the weekly low.
Support levels: 1.2075 1.2030 1.1990
Resistance levels: 1.2130 1.2180 1.2230
USDJPY
The USD/JPY pair posted a modest advance this Tuesday, trading at the end of the US session around 104.15. The pair remained lifeless for most of the day, finding some demand during the American afternoon amid Wall Street’s advance. US Treasury yields, on the other hand, edged lower amid coronavirus-related concerns, as the country keeps reporting record new cases and deaths.
Japanese data was mixed, as the Gross Domestic Product was upwardly revised to 5.3% QoQ in Q3, while the Eco Watchers Survey showed a contraction in the current economic sentiment, from 54.5 to 45.6 in November. The country will release this Wednesday, October Machinery Orders and November Machine Tool Orders.
The USD/JPY pair maintains a neutral stance in the near-term, with the risk skewed to the downside. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading below its 100 SMA although above a flat 20 SMA, both in a 20 pips’ range. Technical indicators have turned flat around their midlines, indicating the absence of speculative interest. The pair needs to advance beyond 105.00 to become bullish, while bears will take control on a break below 103.50.
Support levels: 103.85 103.50 103.10
Resistance levels: 104.30 104.75 105.10
GBPUSD
The GBP/USD pair is down for a third consecutive day, seesawing within a wide intraday range amid contradictory Brexit headlines. Mid-European session, British Cabinet Minister Michael Gove has announced that they have reached an agreement in principle, pushing GBP/USD towards 1.3400.
However, soon afterwards, and according to an EU source, EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier told European ministers that the chances of a deal are “very slim.” Even further, German Minister Michael Roth said that there was no substantial progress in the EU-UK trade talks, adding that "it remains totally uncertain whether Britain and EU can reach a trade deal." Meanwhile, the UK has started to apply Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine, an encouraging development within the pandemic context. The UK reported the BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales, which were up in November by 7.7% YoY.
The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3360, with the risk skewed to the downside, according to intraday technical readings. The 4-hour chart shows that the 20 SMA us turning south above the current level, while bulls quickly jump in on slides below a bullish 100 SMA. The Momentum indicator heads firmly lower near oversold readings, while the RSI stands pat around 47.
Support levels: 1.3310 1.3265 1.3210
Resistance levels: 1.3405 1.3450 1.3505
AUDUSD
The AUD/USD pair was unable to attract speculative interest this Tuesday, spending the day around 0.7410. The pair seems to have followed the tepid behavior of equities, as most indexes managed to post just modest intraday gains. Australia published quite encouraging data, as NAB’s Business Confidence improved in November to 12 from 3 in the previous month, while NAB’s Business Conditions came in at 9 from 2 in October. This Wednesday, the country will publish December Westpac Consumer Confidence, previously at 2.5%.
The AUD/USD pair offers a neutral-to-bearish stance in the near term, without signs of an imminent fall. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is incapable of recovering above a now flat 20 SMA but holds near it. The longer moving averages keep heading north below the current price. In the meantime, technical indicators are directionless around their midlines.
Support levels: 0.7415 0.7375 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7450 0.7490 0.7530
GOLD
While the vaccine developments continue to give hope to markets, the biggest carrot that the markets are following is the stimulus deal. While the US is leading the world in the number of new cases and fatalities, Congress is gearing up for a bipartisan deal worth of $908 billion before the Christmas holiday while the effects of the pandemic continue to weigh on the labour market. As the stimulus expectations are fueling Gold, vaccine developments are limiting the move up. The UK started the vaccine deployment on Tuesday while FDA is expected to authorise the emergency use of the Pfizer&BioNTech vaccine. On the other hand, the USD index DXY is keeping its lifeless move below the 91.00 levels with the stimulus expectation. The current move up seen in Gold might be seen as the pricing of the upcoming “partial” stimulus deal. Therefore, further advance might not be on the table as the deal is announced before the Christmas holiday.
From the technical point of view, below the $1,860 level, the supports can be followed at $1,763 ($1,451-$2,075 61.80%) and $1,700 levels. Over the $1,860 level, the resistances can be followed at $1,900 with $1,956 ($1,451-$2,075 38.20%) and $2,000 levels.
Support Levels: $1,860 $1,763 $1,700
Resistance Levels: $1,900 $1,956 $2,000
SILVER
Silver completed its V-shaped recovery that started in mid-November as the precious metals are supported by the limited stimulus deal. The USD index continues to be under pressure with the stimulus expectations hovering a tick below the 91.00 level. On the other hand, a normalisation between the US and China after the elected-president Biden’s taking over of the White House might give Silver an extra boost due to increase in trade levels and manufacturing. Therefore, Silver looks like a good bet still although the white metal moves back to its consolidation range.
Below the $22.90 level ($11.63-$29.86 38.20%), the supports can be followed at $20.75 ($11.63-$29.86 50.00%) and $18.42 ($11.63-$29.86 61.80%). Over the $22.90 level, the targets up can be followed at $25.21 ($11.63-$29.86 23.60%), $26.00 (August-September support), $27.00 and $28.00 levels.
Support Levels: $22.90 $20.75 $18.42
Resistance Levels: $25.21 $26.00 $27.00
DOWOWOWOWOWO
Dow Jones tried to gain back its losses made on Monday and tried to keep its move over the 30,000 level close to its all-time highs. FDA released a document supporting the Pfizer&BioNTech vaccine and stated that there are no safety or efficiency issues reported. Apart from the vaccine optimism, a bipartisan deal of $900 billion is probably on the way before the Christmas holiday. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell reportedly declined to back a bipartisan $908 billion COVID-19 relief program over his smaller coronavirus package even as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer dropped their demand for a $2.2 trillion program. Media reports said a stop-gap funding bill was on en route to buy more time to finalize a deal. On the other hand, the government will run out of money on Friday as the spending limit is reached. The US equity markets are on their way to end the year in a fashionable way supported by the vaccine developments, stimulus deal and a softer transition to the Biden government.
From the technical point of view, if the index stays over 29,000, 29,500 and 30,000 levels can be followed as new targets high while below the 28,400 level, 28,000 and 27,770 can be followed as supports.
Support Levels: 28,400 28,000 27,770
Resistance Levels: 29,500 30,000 30,500
WITITITITI
WTI had an indecisive and limited range trading session on Tuesday trying to hold over the $45.00 level despite the dominant risk-on mood. While the traders are trying to digest the OPEC+ meeting outcome, an expected partial stimulus deal and normalisation between the US and China is supporting the oil prices. On the other hand, despite the vaccine developments, the current situation of the pandemic in the US continues to hurt oil demand as further lockdown measures are implemented.
Next supports can be seen at 45.00$, 43.88$ and 43.00$ respectively while the resistances can be followed at 47.00$ and 48.50$.
Support Levels: 45.00$ 43.88$ 43.00$
Resistance Levels: 46.00$ 47.00$ 48.50$
MACROECONOMIC EVENTS
* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.
Please remember that trading financial markets carry a high degree of risk to your capital. It is possible to lose more than your initial stake. Leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors, therefore please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent
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