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EURUSD
The EUR/USD pair dropped again on Wednesday, accelerating to the downside after breaking under 1.2100. A deterioration in risk sentiment and higher US yields boosted the dollar that rose across the board. The pair approached 1.2150 before turning lower, hitting at 1.2057, the lowest level in a week.
The VIX jumped during the American session, and mains indexes in Wall Street ended lower, falling from near record-high levels. Market participants focus on the lack of agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union and limited expectations about more stimulus in the US. The key event on Thursday is the European Central Bank meeting. Actions from the central bank are expected. The announcement and Lagarde’s words will likely trigger volatility. In the US, economic data to be released includes jobless claims and inflation.
The EUR/USD pair found support around the 1.2060 zone and looks set to consolidate between the mentioned level and 1.2100. The euro needs to recover levels above 1.2115 to strengthen. The key short-term resistance stands at 1.2150. Technical indicators are pointing lower in the 4-hour chart, suggesting an extension of the current correction lower. A key support is located between 1.1960 and 1.2000. On the upside, the euro failed again to break 1.2150 on Wednesday: a consolidation above would improve the outlook for the euro.
Support levels: 1.2040 1.2000 1.1960
Resistance levels: 1.2095 1.2135 1.2155
USDJPY
The USD/JPY pair moved slightly above its weekly range and posted a fresh six-day high at 104.40 during the New York session. However, the pair failed to sustain gains and retreated back to the 104.20 zone, where it ends the day virtually unchanged. The spike of the USD/JPY was driven by broad-based dollar strength, which was supported by deterioration in risk sentiment and higher US yields.
The short-term technical picture remains tilted to the upside, as the par continues to find stiff support at the 104.00 zone. In the 4-hour chart, technical indicators remain above their midlines, while USD/JPY trades above its main moving averages, except for the 200-period one that is capping the upside around 104.38. A decisive break above this level could drive the pair to the next resistance/target area at 104.75, where the pair peaked on December 2 and November 24. On the flip side, failure to maintain the bullish momentum could give bears an edge and mount pressure on the USD/JPY, with the 104.00 psychological level as the main support. If this level gives up, the pair could drop back to the 103.60 zone.
Support levels: 103.85 103.60 103.10
Resistance levels: 104.40 104.75 105.00
GBPUSD
The GBP/USD pair ended in positive territory on Wednesday hovering around 1.3400 and far from the peak. The pound climbed to 1.3476, and again it was rejected from above 1.3450 and pulled back later, finding support above 1.3350. The Brexit drama still is the main driver in price action. During the American session, a stronger US dollar pushed the pair back under 1.3400.
UK PM Johnson is in Brussels in a meeting with European Commission’s President Ursula von der Leyen. The outcomes of the dinner could set the next days or years for the relationship between the UK and the EU. As negotiators’ reach a deadlock, both leaders will try to re-start negotiations looking for a deal before the end of the transition period by the end of December. The meeting could have a different ending that should lead to speeding up preparations for a no-deal Brexit and should trigger a sharp slide of the pound. If a deal looms, cable could approach 1.3500.
The GBP/USD pair is hovering around 1.3400, without a clear direction and even technical indicators are not showing strong signs. In the 4-hour chart, indicators are biased to the downside, only slightly. Price is standing at the 20-SMA in the mentioned chart. The key level on the downside is 1.3300: a consolidation below should lead to a sharper correction, to test December lows and then appears the critical 1.3080 area (100-day moving average and uptrend line). The main trend is bullish, and a firm breakout above 1.3450 would point to another test of 1.3500.
Support levels: 1.3340 1.3280 1.3220
Resistance levels: 1.3445 1.3505 1.3540
AUDUSD
The AUD/USD pair pushed higher on Wednesday and reached its highest level in over two years, underpinned by data published by the Faculty of Economics and Commerce Melbourne Institute showed that the consumer confidence in Australia continued to strengthen in December. Despite the fact that the US dollar managed to advance against most major rivals, it fell versus the aussie. The AUD/USD pair climbed to its highest level since July 2018 at 0.7485 but failed to preserve its bullish momentum during the New York session and dropped back to the 0.7445 zone, where it posts a 0.45% daily gain, the first after three consecutive falls.
From a technical perspective, the bias remains slightly bullish. Even though indicators on the 4-hour chart have turned down, they still hold above their midlines. On the daily chart, the picture is more bullish following Wednesday’s price action. A break above 0.7485 could pave the way to more gains, with next upside targets seen at 0.7565 and 0.7600. On the other hand, in case of setbacks, immediate support is seen at the 50-period SMA in the 4-hour chart at around 0.7400, followed by the 20-day SMA at 0.7350.
Support levels: 0.7400 0.7350 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7485 0.7565 0.7600
DOW JONES
Dow Jones gave away this week’s gains on Wednesday as the stimulus uncertainty hurt markets. The U.S. House of Representatives was set to vote Wednesday on a one-week stopgap funding bill that will buy more time to reach a deal on COVID-19 relief, with separate aid packages of more than $900 billion on the table. The pressure is on at the moment as the markets are heading through the holiday season. On the vaccine side, The reported allergic reactions to Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine will be a part of the US Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) considerations during the review, an official for US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said on Wednesday, per Reuters. The official further noted that Pfizer's vaccine could receive an emergency use approval within days of the FDA meeting and said vaccinations could start next week while Britain already started using the vaccine. CPI data set will be followed in the US today combined with the weekly labour data readings. The US Consumer Price Index is expected to rise by gasoline-led 0.1% in the November data to be released Thursday morning, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The same survey also sees a 0.1% increase in core CPI, excluding the volatile food and energy components. Both overall and core CPI were flat in October.
From the technical point of view, if the index stays over 29,000, 29,500 and 30,000 levels can be followed as new targets high while below the 28,400 level, 28,000 and 27,770 can be followed as supports.
Support Levels: 28,400 28,000 27,770
Resistance Levels: 29,500 30,000 30,500
XGAGAGAGAGA
Silver also gave away this week's gains on Wednesday as the USD index DXY managed to gain back 91.00 levels. The markets are focused on the US stimulus news at the moment. Although there is bipartisan approval on the amount of the bill, there is still no deal on the method to use the aid which delays the agreement as we get closer to the year-end holiday season. Gold to Silver ratio again tests 77.00 levels as Silver is outperformed by Gold. Apart from the stimulus uncertainty and the rise of the USD, softer than expected Consumer Price Inflation data out of China also hurt the white metal. The Consumer Price Index dropped 0.6% MoM during the month, bringing the YoY rate of price growth into negative territory at -0.5%. The Producer Price Index was also in negative territory, though not by as much as feared (coming in at -1.5% versus expectations for a drop in producer prices of 1.8%).
Below the $22.90 level ($11.63-$29.86 38.20%), the supports can be followed at $20.75 ($11.63-$29.86 50.00%) and $18.42 ($11.63-$29.86 61.80%). Over the $22.90 level, the targets up can be followed at $25.21 ($11.63-$29.86 23.60%), $26.00 (August-September support), $27.00 and $28.00 levels.
Support Levels: $22.90 $20.75 $18.42
Resistance Levels: $25.21 $26.00 $27.00
GOPDLD
Gold failed to sustain its move up on Wednesday and erased this week’s gains. The disappointment over the stimulus deal weighed on Gold and lifted the USD index DXY back over 91.00 levels. Also, the US 10-year yields jumped back to 0.95% level while the US indexes faced retracement. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration proposed a $916 billion aid package, while Congressional lawmakers were still working on resolving differences on the inclusion of business liability protections and state and local government aid. The uncertainty over the deal, which was labelled as bipartisan, hurt the risk appetite in the markets and pressure the precious metals. At this point, the usage of the aid package is not clear despite the amount being approved from both parties. Gold might face extra selling pressure as the markets are heading close to the Christmas holiday with no deal in hand.
From the technical point of view, below the $1,860 level, the supports can be followed at $1,800, $1,763 ($1,451-$2,075 61.80%) and $1,700 levels. Over the $1,860 level, the resistances can be followed at $1,900 with $1,956 ($1,451-$2,075 38.20%) and $2,000 levels.
Support Levels: $1,800 $1,763 $1,700
Resistance Levels: $1,900 $1,956 $2,000
WTITIIT
WTI tested its weekly lows as the EIA inventory build surprised investors. Crude stocks rose 15.189M barrels last week versus expectations for a drop of 1.424M. This took total US crude oil inventories to 503.2M barrels, about 11% above the average over the last five years. Gasoline and Distillate stocks also posted much larger than expected builds of 5.222M (exp. 1.414M) and 4.222M (exp. 2.271M) respectively, while US production was steady at 11.1M barrels per day. The rise in the stocks is a clear result of lockdown measures in the US which hurts demand. On the other hand, there is still no clear result on the stimulus deal which fuels the risk aversion on the markets.
Next supports can be seen at 45.00$, 43.88$ and 43.00$ respectively while the resistances can be followed at 47.00$ and 48.50$.
Support Levels: 45.00$ 43.88$ 43.00$
Resistance Levels: 46.00$ 47.00$ 48.50$
MACROECONOMIC EVENTS
* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.
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