Dự báo tăng giá chủ yếu dựa trên kỳ vọng về sự phục hồi của nhu cầu toàn cầu đối với chất lỏng dầu mỏ. Cụ thể, EIA dự kiến nhu cầu dầu sẽ tăng trong quý I dù trong bối cảnh COVID-19 sẽ tiếp tục hạn chế nhu cầu dầu toàn cầu trong nửa đầu năm 2021.
GDP của Mỹ sẽ tăng 5.4% vào năm 2021, kéo theo tăng trưởng tiêu thụ năng lượng. Mức tiêu thụ nhiên liệu lỏng toàn cầu vào năm 2021 dự kiến đạt trung bình 97.8 triệu thùng/ngày trong năm nay.
Do đó, EIA đã điều chỉnh dự báo giá quý đầu tiên đối với dầu thô (WTI), tăng từ $50 lên $56.
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