Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model’s estimate for the first-quarter real Gross Domestic Product Growth (GDP) declined to 1.5% following Wednesday’s data releases.
Nonfarm Payrolls in the US is forecast to rise by 240,000 following February’s impressive increase of 311,000. The Unemployment Rate in the US is expected to hold steady at 3.6%.
Assessing the potential impact of the US jobs report on the USD’s valuation, “with the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index down at 46.9, there is growing evidence that the positive demand in the US labour market is now beginning to fade,” noted economists at MUFG Bank “If that is confirmed on Friday by a weaker than expected Nonfarm Payrolls report it will likely result in a more substantial depreciation of the US Dollar.”
Economic activity in the US services sector expanded at a softening pace in March with the ISM Services PMI declining to 51.2 from 55.1 in February.
The inflation component of the PMI survey, the Price Paid sub-index, edged lower to 69.5 from 65.6 in February. The Employment sub-index fell to 51.3 from 54.
Employment in the US private sector rose by 145K in March, falling short of analysts' estimate of 200K, ADP's monthly report showed on Wednesday.
Commenting on the data, "our March payroll data is one of several signals that the economy is slowing,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "Employers are pulling back from a year of strong hiring and pay growth, after a three-month plateau, is inching down."
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Tuesday that the number of job openings on the last business day of February declined to 9.9 million from 10.5 million in January.
Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that the Chinese Yuan has surpassed the US Dollar as the most traded currency, in monthly trading volume, for the first time in Russia in February. According to the outlet, the gap has continued to widen in March.
Last week, Brazil and China have reached an agreement to stop using the US Dollar as an intermediary in trade transactions.
On Sunday, Saudi Arabia announced that several producers in OPEC will participate in voluntary output cuts from May to the end of the year. The group’s total output will be reduced by more than 1.5 million barrels per day in that period.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said on Monday that the unexpected decision by OPEC to lower output could make the Fed’s jobs of bringing inflation down back to 2% target more challenging.
ISM’s Report on Business revealed on Monday that the headline Manufacturing PMI declined to 46.3 in March from 47.7 in February, revealing a contraction at an accelerating pace in the manufacturing sector’s economic activity.
The Prices Paid Index of the PMI survey, the inflation component, dropped to 49.2 from 51.3. This reading suggests that input inflation in the sector softened in March.
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