Inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is forecast to decline to 5.2% in March from 6% in February. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.4% on a monthly basis, compared to the 0.5% increase recorded in February.
Previewing the CPI data, “a smaller-than-expected increase will be welcomed and trigger optimism, yet it is worth remembering the Fed’s favorite inflation measure is still the Core PCE Price Index and the effects of CPI on financial boards will likely be short-lived,” says FXStreet Analyst Valeria Bednarik. “On the other hand, higher inflation data could boost concerns and end up favoring the US Dollar due to its safe-haven condition.”
Economists at ING note that markets are increasingly doubtful that the Fed will be able to hike rates much further but add that the upcoming CPI report could change that stance.
Earlier in the week, NY Fed’s latest consumer survey revealed that the one-year inflation expectation climbed to 4.7% in March from 4.2% in February.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model’s estimate for the first-quarter real Gross Domestic Product Growth (GDP) in the US rose to 2.2% from 1.5% on April 10.
NY Fed President John Williams argued on Monday that the pace of Fed rate increases was not behind the issues surrounding the two collapsed banks back in March. On Tuesday, "we've gotten policy to a restrictive stance, now we need to watch the data on retail sales, CPI and others," Williams stated.
The Fed will release the minutes of its March policy meeting later in the session.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 236,000 in March, slightly below the market expectation of 240,000. February’s print of 311,000 got revised higher to 326,000 from 311,000.
Wage inflation in the US, as measured by Average Hourly Earnings, declined to 4.2% on a yearly basis from 4.6% in February. The Unemployment Rate ticked down to 3.5% with the Labor Force Participation Rate improving to 62.6% from 62.5%.
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