Economists at Commerzbank analyze NOK outlook after another inflation surprise from Norway.

Norges will have to deliver

The April inflation data has already surprised on the upside, now the May data provided another surprise. Both overall inflation, as well as core inflation, reached 6.7% YoY. 

Norges Bank had already signalled a rate hike for the upcoming central bank meeting on 22nd June, but it had left all doors open for the time after that. Recent inflation developments suggest though that the June rate step will not be the last one.

The market clearly expects further rate hikes in Norway. However, Norges Bank will actually have to deliver. If it meets market expectations with hawkish comments and a hawkish rate decision in June NOK might appreciate further over the coming weeks