EUR/USD is reined in below 1.08. Economists at Société Générale analyze the pair’s outlook ahead of Fed and ECB meetings.

Another down leg is not ruled out if the 1.0860/1.0900 resistance area proves a bridge too far

Right now, even if a July increase cannot be ruled out and rate cuts have been pretty much completely priced out for 2H, Powell or the dots would have to be sufficiently hawkish to keep 2y yields and the Dollar from unravelling. 

Today’s decision should not measure up against what is likely to be a hawkish 25 bps by the ECB tomorrow. With that in mind, EUR/USD looks well placed to build on early June gains. Technically, however, the picture is not straightforward and 1.0860/1.0900 must be overcome for the pair to kick on. Another down leg is not ruled out if resistance area proves a bridge too far and the ECB sparks profit-taking tomorrow.