Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research, analyzes USD outlook ahead of FOMC.

Currency market should not overlook the obvious contradiction between words and deeds 

If the FOMC leaves the target range unchanged today, there is a high probability that the market's revision of expectations since the last meeting was premature. However, since this was the cause of most of the USD strength since then, there is less reason for this strength.

Sure, Powell may try his best to make a July hike seem likely. But I hope that the currency market is not so stupid as to overlook the obvious contradiction between words and deeds that this would create.