On we go to the ECB. Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist, analyzes the EUR outlook ahead of the Monetary Policy Decision. 

The outlook is – even – more data-dependent 

The market prices 50 bps in increases by September and is split on the idea of a third. That means 25 bps today and a lot of talk about inflation being too high/sticky. 

The ECB needs to talk tough (and eventually, to act tough) to avoid the Euro rally fizzling out. But what we really need to see EUR/USD make a break towards our forecast of a peak between 1.15 and 1.20 in late 2023 or early 2024, is an improvement in the European growth outlook. 

Signs of improvement in the European data could do more for the Euro’s outlook in the coming weeks than the ECB is likely to, just by sounding hawkish.