CAD holds low 1.32 zone ahead of Retail Sales, summary of BoC deliberations. Economists at Scotiabank analyze USD/CAD outlook.

How much more tightening?

Canadian Retail Sales consensus is for a 0.4% MoM gain in April after a very soft March report. That’s a bit ahead of the 0.2% advance estimate for April that was released along with the March report.

The summary of the Bank of Canada’s deliberations may shed a little more light on the degree of concern among policymakers regarding entrenched inflation and help gauge how much more tightening we might see delivered (Scotia expects another 25 bps hike). 

Decent data and a hawkish tone in the Bank’s summary of deliberations will lift the CAD.