GBP underperforms after another CPI overshoot. Economist at Scotiabank analyze Sterling outlook.

Focus on BoE 

The May data showed headline CPI rising 0.7% in the month (0.5% expected) and accelerating to 8.7% in the year. Core CPI rose to 7.1% in the year and my calculations show the 3m annualized core rate holding above 12%, underscoring the sharp pick up in core prices since the start of the year. 

The data should seal a 25 bps hike from the BoE tomorrow, with swaps pricing in a slightly greater chance of 50 bps (32 bps priced in, from 28 bps prior to the data). 

The GBP, which slumped close to a cent on the USD around the data, looks in need of more aggressive rate support.