WTI Crude dived convincingly below the $70 mark. However, strategists at TD Securities still expect Oil to return to $90 later in the year.

The recent Saudi cuts and the OPEC supply reductions should generate a deficit in both Q3 and Q4

While traders are selling Oil as the macro environment becomes increasingly problematic for demand and risk appetite goes into reverse, the current negativity may very well be based on fears of the worst-case scenario, rather than the likely facts on the ground for the balance of the year. 

Even if there is a sharp reduction in demand expectations (as we assume) the recent Saudi cuts and the OPEC supply reductions should generate a deficit in both Q3 and Q4, which are likely to more than offset the surplus accumulated in the first half of 2023. With that, global inventory reductions should tighten markets. As such, we continue to expect WTI to approach the $90 mark in the latter part of the year