Current trend

The XAU/USD pair is trading around 1915.00, returning to the local lows updated last week.

As before, pressure on gold is exerted by expectations of further tightening of monetary conditions by world central banks. In particular, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England have already announced their intentions to increase the cost of borrowing during their July meetings. The day before, investors also drew attention to the comments of Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, who hinted at the possibility of intervention by the financial regulator in case of further weakening of the yen. Adjusting the interest rate is unlikely, since the inflation rate in the country remains below the target levels; however, the market has already encountered a similar approach of the Bank of Japan last year.

In turn, the American currency was supported yesterday by macroeconomic statistics from the USA. New Home Sales in May added 12.2% after rising by 3.5% in the previous month, while analysts expected an increase of 0.5%, and the Housing Price Index accelerated from 0.5% to 0.7% in April, while the markets expected the dynamics to slow down to 0.3%. In turn, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in June rose from -15.0 points to -7.0 points, which turned out to be better than forecasts at the level of -10.0 points.

According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in gold amounted to 163.0 thousand, up from 160.2 thousand a week earlier. The global outflow of investors has slowed down, and this week is the first in a long time when the increase in the number of positions in the asset is again observed. The swap dealers balance amounted to 95.175 thousand for the "bulls" against 254.236 thousand for the "bears". Last week, the number of contracts was increased by 1.732 thousand by the sellers and by 1.806 thousand by the buyers, which indicates a recovery in demand for the asset.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is slightly narrowing, reflecting the ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is falling, keeping a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, having approached the level of "20", reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating the risks of the oversold instrument in the near future.

Resistance levels: 1915.00, 1930.00, 1940.00, 1952.53.

Support levels: 1900.00, 1886.46, 1869.49, 1850.27.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 1900.00 with the target at 1869.49. Stop-loss — 1915.00. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

The return of the "bullish" trend with the breakout of 1930.00 may become a signal for new purchases with the target of 1960.00. Stop-loss — 1915.00.