The Nonfarm Payrolls number, part of the US jobs report, will be released at 12:30 GMT on July 7. EUR/USD has been struggling around the 1.0900 level so far this week. The labor market data could help determine whether the US Dollar will maintain the upper hand against the Euro.
Stronger-than-expected NFP numbers and hot wage inflation data would strengthen expectations of more Fed tightening in the upcoming months, in line with the Fed’s Dot Plot chart, which suggested two more rate hikes ahead. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said last week that “a strong majority of Fed policymakers expect two or more rate hikes by year-end.”
Alternatively, the US Dollar could give up the recovery gains and resume its downtrend on signs of cooling wage inflation and below-forecasts NFP data. Downbeat data could raise doubts about the chances of any further rate increases by the Fed after the expected 25 basis points (bps) July hike. In such a scenario, EUR/USD could see a fresh advance toward 1.1000.
Meanwhile, Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for the EUR/USD pair and explains: “The main currency pair is clinging to the bullish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at 1.08890 in the run-up to the US NFP showdown. EUR/USD buyers could find some support, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just above the midline.”
Dhwani also outlines important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “On the upside, Euro buyers need to find a strong foothold above the 21 DMA barrier at 1.0890 to sustain the previous rebound, with eyes on the 1.0950 psychological barrier. The next critical resistance is seen at the June top of 1.1012. Conversely, immediate support awaits at the mildly bearish 50 DMA at 1.0857, below which the horizontal 100 DMA at 1.0828 will limit the downside. The last line of defense for Euro buyers is envisioned at the 1.0750 key level.”
เขียนข้อความของคุณตอนนี้