The United States of America

The US currency is strengthening against the euro and the pound, but has ambiguous dynamics paired with the yen.

Today, weekly data from the US labor market was published, which turned out to be mixed: the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits amounted to 228.0K, which is less than both forecasts of 242.0K and the previous figure of 237.0K. The total number of people receiving assistance from the state increased from 1.721M to 1.754M instead of the 1.729M expected by experts. In general, despite a number of significant signs of cooling, the labor market still remains quite stable in the face of a serious increase in the US Fed interest rate. Based on this, the regulator may continue moderate tightening of monetary policy. Also, during the day, investors expect the publication of June data on sales in the secondary housing market. It is likely that the indicator will drop from 4.30M to 4.20M, which may put pressure on the positions of the national currency.

Eurozone

The European currency is weakening against the USD, strengthening against the pound and has ambiguous dynamics paired with the yen.

Today, the June data on the German producer price index was published: on a monthly basis, the indicator rose from -1.4% to -0.3% instead of the expected -0.4%, and on an annual basis it fell from 1.0% to 0.1 %, slightly less than the 0.0% predicted by experts. In general, producer prices in the leading German economy continue to decline, illustrating the industry's problems with sales and insufficient new orders. We also note the results of a survey of leading economists on the further actions of the European Central Bank (ECB), conducted by Reuters. Most respondents believe that the regulator will raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month, and some experts expect another adjustment in September.

The United Kingdom

The British currency today continues to weaken against its main competitors – the euro, the yen and the USD.

In the absence of significant economic releases, the movement of the pound as a whole is due to the influence of external factors. It is worth noting the recent comments of the British Minister of Energy Security Grant Shapps, who said that the government continues to adhere to the plan to double the rate of inflation this year. On Friday, investors are waiting for the publication of June data on retail sales in the UK: it is likely that on a monthly basis, their volume will slow down growth from 0.3% to 0.2%, and on an annualized basis it will decrease by 1.5%. Realization of the forecast may put additional pressure on the pound.

Japan

The Japanese currency is strengthening against the pound today and has ambiguous dynamics in pairs with the euro and the USD.

Experts focus on the publication of June data on foreign trade: exports grew by 1.5%, which is significantly less than the 2.2% increase expected by experts, and imports decreased by 12.9% instead of the forecasted 11.3%. All this created a trade surplus of 43.0B yen, and the value became positive for the first time in the last 23 months. We also note the publication of the Japanese government's semi-annual economic report, according to which officials have reduced their forecasts for gross domestic product (GDP) in the current financial year. Now it is expected that the growth rate will be only 1.3% instead of the previously estimated 1.5%. In terms of inflation, it could be 2.6% this fiscal year and 1.9% next fiscal year, close to the Bank of Japan's target of 2.0%. Thus, the government acknowledged the significant inflationary dynamics in the country and gave investors another reason to hope that the regulator will move away from the current super-soft monetary policy.

Australia

The Australian currency is strengthening today against its main competitors – the euro, the pound, the yen and the USD.

In the focus of investors' attention is the publication of June data from the Australian labor market. Thus, total employment increased by 32.6K, seriously exceeding the forecasted 15.0K, while full employment increased immediately by 39.3K. The unemployment rate remained at the same level of 3.5% instead of the expected adjustment to 3.6%. These data indicate that the national labor market remains strong, which increases the risks of further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Oil

Oil quotes are trying to grow today.

Prices continue to be supported by the data of the report published by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA). According to the document, US commercial oil inventories decreased by 0.708M barrels, which is less than the forecasted 2.440M barrels. At the same time, gasoline inventories fell by 1.066M barrels, while distillates rose slightly by 0.014M barrels. In addition, producers continue to hope for an increase in the consumption of "black gold" in China in the second half of the year, despite the weak recovery of the Chinese economy, which also supports oil quotes.