EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows a slight increase, trying to recover from a sharp decline at the beginning of this week, which was partly provoked by the publication of macroeconomic statistics in the euro area. The Manufacturing PMI in Germany from S&P Global in July fell from 40.6 points to 38.8 points, while analysts expected 41.0 points, and the Services PMI fell from 54.1 points to 52.0 points with a forecast of 53.1 points, but remained above the level of 50.0 points, which is a kind of border of growth and decline. The Manufacturing PMI in the euro area also corrected from 43.4 points to 42.7 points, while experts expected 43.5 points, and the Services PMI went down from 52.0 points to 51.1 points, ahead of forecasts of 51.5 points. In turn, data from the US, published the day before, reflected an increase in the Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global from 46.3 points to 49.0 points in July, while analysts had expected 46.4 points. At the same time, the Services PMI corrected from 54.4 points to 52.4 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations at the level of 54.0 points. The focus of investors today is the European Central Bank (ECB) Lending Survey. Also during the day July statistics on the level of business expectations from the Institute for Economic Research (IFO) will be published in Germany. Forecasts suggest a further moderate decline in key indicators. It is also worth noting that the markets are preparing for the meetings of the US and European regulators, which will be held on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Both the US Federal Reserve and the ECB are expected to raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair shows a multidirectional nature of trading, holding near 1.2830. The American currency is actively adding in value, receiving support from the expectations of the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve at the meeting, the results of which will be known tomorrow. Some analysts are convinced that the July interest rate hike could be the last in the current long cycle of monetary tightening. The regulator will try to take a wait-and-see attitude, after which it may return to lower borrowing costs in early 2024, which will depend on the real situation in the economy. In turn, the meeting of the Bank of England will be held next week. The British regulator is also expected to adjust the indicator at a minimal pace (by 25 basis points), given the continuing inflationary pressure in the country. Macroeconomic data from the UK, published the day before, did not provide any support to the pound. The Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global in July fell from 46.5 points to 45.0 points, while the forecast was 46.1 points, the Services PMI went down from 53.7 points to 51.5 points, which also turned out to be worse than the 53.0 points expected by analysts, and the Composite PMI declined from 52.8 points to 50.7 points, while experts expected 52.4 points.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair shows an uncertain growth, developing the "bullish" momentum that formed at the beginning of this week. The instrument is testing the level of 0.6210 for a breakout, trying to get support from macroeconomic statistics. Meanwhile, data from New Zealand, published the day before, turned out to be negative. In June, Exports fell from 6.97 billion dollars to 6.31 billion dollars, and Imports fell from 6.91 billion dollars to 6.30 billion dollars, which led to a reduction in the Trade Surplus from 52.0 million dollars to 9.0 million dollars in monthly terms. The balance sheet deficit in annual terms decreased slightly from -17.12 billion dollars in May to -15.98 billion dollars in June. In turn, Credit Card Spending in June increased from 3.4% to 5.0%, which, however, turned out to be significantly lower than the expected increase to 9.9%. The focus of investors today will be statistics from the US on the level of Consumer Confidence in July, as well as the Home Price Index for May. In addition, markets continue to assess the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. Tomorrow, the regulator may raise the interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% and take a wait-and-see attitude.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing flat dynamics, holding near 141.40 and waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. The instrument slightly decreased following the results of trading on Monday, retreating from its local highs of July 10, which can be associated with the publication of macroeconomic statistics in the US. In particular, the Services PMI from S&P Global in July corrected from 54.4 points to 52.4 points, which turned out to be worse than expected at 54.0 points, while the Manufacturing PMI rose from 46.3 points to 49.0 points, well ahead of analysts' expectations at the level of 46.4 points. In turn, the Composite PMI fell from 53.2 points to 52.0 points, while experts expected 53.1 points. Data from Japan showed a decline in Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in July from 49.8 points to 49.4 points, while analysts expected the same dynamics to continue. Market activity remains quite low this morning as market participants await the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Forecasts suggest another increase in the interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. The Bank of Japan will also hold a meeting at the end of the week, and before that, July statistics on consumer inflation in the Tokyo region will be published. Some experts are of the opinion that the regulator may revise its policy on the yield curve, which will be the first step towards tightening monetary policy.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair shows moderate growth, correcting after four "bearish" sessions in a row, as a result of which the local lows of July 17 were updated. The instrument is testing 1960.00 for a breakout, waiting for new drivers to emerge. As before, moderate pressure on quotes is exerted by the upcoming meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), at which, according to forecasts, decisions will be made in favor of further tightening of monetary policy. The cost of borrowing at both meetings may be increased by 25 basis points, but in the case of the US regulator, this may be the last adjustment of the value this year. In addition, a meeting of the Bank of Japan will also be held this week, although it is not yet expected to change its negative interest rate. Among the upcoming macroeconomic publications in the US, one can note the annual data on the dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter on Thursday. Forecasts suggest a slowdown in the US economy from 2.0% to 1.7%. In addition, the GDP Price Index, which serves as an additional marker of inflation, is expected to fall from 4.1% to 3.1%.