Current trend

The New Zealand dollar shows moderate growth in the NZD/USD pair, developing a weak upward momentum around 0.6100, formed at the end of last week, when the instrument managed to retreat from the local lows of June 30.

Investors are evaluating Friday's US labor market report, which recorded an increase of about 187.0 thousand Nonfarm Payrolls, which was below the expected 200.0 thousand, while the Average Hourly Earnings corrected another 0.4% on a monthly basis contrary to forecasts for a slowdown in the indicator to 0.3%, and the Unemployment Rate in July fell to a new record low of 3.5%. The national currency reacted to the publication of statistics with a moderate decrease, after which, however, it managed to restore its positions and win back most of the losses. However, traders were somewhat disappointed by the continuing tension in the labor market against the background of the likely completion of the US Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy cycle. Thus, until the end of the year, the interest rate is likely to be kept at the current level.

Macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand will appear only on Wednesday, when the market will receive July data on the dynamics of Electronic Card Retail Sales, as well as updated inflation forecasts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Analysts expect Electronic Card Retail Sales to pick up a 9.8% year-on-year uptrend after 4.2% in the previous month.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily declining. The price range narrows slightly from below, reflecting an attempt to break the "bearish" trend in the near future. MACD is preserving quite a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is in the area of its lows, demonstrating a weak upward direction and signaling in favor of the development of corrective growth in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6131, 0.6155, 0.6183, 0.6221.

Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6050, 0.6000, 0.5941.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 0.6050 with the target at 0.5941. Stop-loss — 0.6100. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 0.6050 followed by a breakout of 0.6100 may become a signal for opening long positions with the target at 0.6183. Stop-loss — 0.6050.