Economists at Scotiabank analyze Dollar’s outlook as USD edges lower as markets position ahead of core PCE data. 

USD is looking prone to more losses

The USD is looking prone to more losses in broad terms with the DXY again struggling to extend much above the 103.50 area – the point I highlighted at the start of the week that the index would need to extend through to rally.

US Personal Income is forecast to rise 0.3% in December, with Spending up 0.5% in the month. The core PCE deflator is expected to drop back to 3.0% YoY, from 3.2% in November, however.

Signs of slower inflation will add to market bets that the Fed will be thinking a bit harder about rate cuts in the coming months. Soft data may see the USD slip a little but I’m not yet inclined to rule out a further extension of the USD’s early 2024 rebound.