EUR/USD nudges higher. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

Narrower EZ/USD spread lifts EUR

EUR/USD has been supported by narrowing spreads versus the USD in the past couple of weeks. A clearly dovish ECB may undermine that trend, and weigh on the EUR, but a hold and ‘no rush’ messaging may support a firmer EUR.

Some positive price signals (spot moving above the 40-DMA at 1.0836) and an alignment of shorter-term (intraday and daily) trend oscillators give the short-term EUR chart a positive spin to start the week.

The EUR’s grind higher since the mid-February low may have a chance to develop a little more momentum and test resistance at 1.0880/1.0890. A clear push through here should see gains progress to 1.1000/1.1100.