NZD/USD consolidates after the recent decline post-RBNZ meeting. Economists at OCBC Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.

Some unwinding of Kiwi longs may still be underway

For now, rates are likely to remain at restrictive level for sustained period to meet inflation objective. 

Some unwinding of Kiwi longs may still be underway but after the washout, NZD remains attractive, given yield appeal as RBNZ is likely to be one of the last amongst DM central banks to cut rates. 

Some degree of policy divergence with the Fed is possible in 2H 2024 and eventual stabilisation in China economy should also be supportive of NZD