The US Dollar Index (DXY) gets a bit of a tailwind out of an unexpected corner as China disappointed markets. The measures that came out of the National People’s Congress are being written off as too little, with traders switching away their long Renminbi bets and allocating them to long US Dollar positions.
The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 103.91 got snapped this Tuesday, where a daily close above would be quite a bullish signal. Should the US Dollar be able to cross above it, 104.60 is het next first target ahead. A firm step beyond there 105.88 comes into reach, the high from November 2023. Ultimately, 107.20 – the high of 2023 – could come back into scope.
Looking down, the 200-day Simple Moving Average at 103.74 has been broken a few times recently, though it has not seen a daily close below it last week, showcasing its importance. The 200-day SMA should not let go that easily, so a small retreat back to that level could be more than granted. Ultimately, should it lose its force, prices could fall to 103.22, the 55-day SMA, before testing 103.00.
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