Economists at ING analyze EUR/CHF outlook ahead of the SNB decision on Thursday.

SNB to stay on hold

We expect the SNB to stay on hold even though there has been some speculation of a rate cut already this month. However, we think the SNB is much more likely to wait for its next meeting in June to start easing policy. That allows for a couple more months of evidence that inflation has indeed stabilised, and this is also the point that the ECB is expected to cut. 

EUR/CHF may move lower this week as the 7 bps of implied tightening for this meeting are priced out, but we still expect the pair to find good support at 0.9600.