After jumping out of the blocks at the start of the year, the US Dollar (USD) has run out of steam and is almost back to where it started 2024 against a basket of 26 currencies.

Monetary easing in the US to be less aggressive than in the rest of the world

The recent USD weakness probably reflects a sanguine view of a soft landing for the US economy, with very limited collateral damage to corporate earnings and limited job losses. 

As we remain skeptical of this view and expect monetary easing in the US to be less aggressive than in the rest of the world, where negative growth is widespread, we expect the Dollar to rebound in the coming months.