The Russian Central Bank (CBR) meets today. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Rouble’s (RUB) outlook ahead of the decision.

No rate cut from CBR

No (polled) analyst is expecting a change to the Russian Central Bank’s main rate from the current 16%. 

Needless to say: this rate decision does not influence the ‘technical fix’ USD/RUB or EUR/RUB exchange rates that we observe – those are determined solely by demand-supply of energy (and some other commodity) trade.

On that basis, we forecast the Rouble to weaken steadily over the long term. Interest rates could have potentially affected the exchange rate only if capital flows could have occurred in response to interest rate differentials. But in Russia’s case, this cannot happen in US Dollars or Euros because of sanctions.