Current trend

During the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair shows ambiguous trading, holding close to 1.3600 and local highs of mid-December. Activity in the market remains low. However, macroeconomic statistics supports the American currency.

The US dollar received a growth impetus after the US Federal Reserve meeting, which reflected the American regulator’s readiness to maintain a wait-and-see attitude, as well as after the decision of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to reduce the interest rate by 25.0 basis points. Trading participants react to data on business activity, as the S&P Global manufacturing PMI in March increased from 52.2 points to 52.5 points, while analysts expected a decrease to 51.7 points, and the services PMI decreased from 52.3 points to 51.7 points, worse than market forecasts of 52.0 points. The initial jobless claims for the week of March 15 decreased from 212.0K to 210.0K, contrary to the forecast of an increase to 215.0K.

The Canadian dollar is under pressure after the publication of ambiguous statistics on retail sales dynamics for January: sales volumes decreased by 0.3% after growing by 0.9% earlier compared to forecasts of 0.4%. Excluding cars, volumes adjusted from 0.6% to 0.5%, while analysts expected 0.4%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing moderately: the price range expands from above, letting the “bulls” renew local highs. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a strong buy signal: the histogram is above the signal line. Stochastic is directed upwards and is near the highs, indicating that the American dollar may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750.

Support levels: 1.3550, 1.3525, 1.3500, 1.3450.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 1.3600, with the target at 1.3700. Stop loss – 1.3550. Implementation time: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after a rebound from 1.3600 and a breakdown of 1.3550, with the target at 1.3450. Stop loss – 1.3600.