Current trend

The USD/CAD pair is moving in the range of 1.3607–1.3464, awaiting new movement drivers.

After the US Fed decided to keep the interest rate around 5.50%, the price dropped to the support level of 1.3464 but then the American dollar regained lost ground, and the instrument reached the resistance level of 1.3607 against a likely change in the timing of monetary policy easing. Thus, as a main scenario, markets are still considering the possibility of adjusting borrowing costs by 25 basis points during the June meeting although such a step is now estimated at only 60.0%. Experts predict no more than 3–4 declines in the indicator this year but there are still too many risk factors on the market.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is losing ground amid slowing inflation: the consumer price index was 0.3% MoM in February, below the 0.6% growth forecast, as a result of which Bank of Canada officials may abandon tightening monetary policy.

The trading instrument is moving within a long-term upward trend: if the price overcomes the key resistance level of 1.3607, the next buy target will be 1.3670 and then 1.3764. If the resistance level of 1.3607 is held, a decline to 1.3464 and further to the support level of 1.3380 is expected.

The medium-term trend is upward: last week, the asset reached 1.3596, after overcoming which it will head towards zone 3 (1.3738–1.3719). Otherwise, a downward correction to the key trend support area 1.3431–1.3413 is possible, after reaching which long positions with the target at 1.3596 are relevant.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.3607, 1.3670, 1.3764.

Support levels: 1.3464, 1.3434, 1.3380.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from 1.3607 with the target at 1.3464 and stop loss 1.3650. Implementation time: 9–12 days.

Long positions may be opened above 1.3650 with the target at 1.3764 and stop loss 1.3607.