EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is testing 1.0820 for a breakdown: activity on the market has remained low over the past few days. Tomorrow, most trading floors in the eurozone and the United States will be closed for the Easter holidays, but analysts expect the publication of the American Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index: in February the figure is likely to adjust from 0.3% to 0.4%, and in annual terms - from 2.4% to 2.5%, while the core index will decrease from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and remain at 2.8% on an annual basis. Today, investors are assessing statistics on the dynamics of Retail Sales in Germany, which is a key indicator of consumer spending that has a significant impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP): on a monthly basis, the indicator accelerated the negative dynamics from -0.4% to -1.9%, and on an annual basis - from -1.4% to -2.7%, acting as a driver for the decline in quotes of the single currency. Also during the day, statistics on the labor market will be published in Germany, but forecasts do not imply significant changes in the unemployment rate. In addition, at 14:30 (GMT 2) the US will present final data on GDP for the fourth quarter of 2023, as well as the Consumer Confidence index from the University of Michigan, which may remain at 76.5 points in March.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is correcting, again testing 1.2630 for a breakdown. In recent days, the instrument has shown mixed trading dynamics, which is associated with a drop in activity in the market as a whole and the publication of mixed macroeconomic data. The American currency continues to be supported by weakening expectations that the US Federal Reserve will begin easing monetary policy in the near future. The American economy is demonstrating stability, which allows the regulator not to rush into the transition to "dovish" rhetoric. In addition, inflation risks have not yet been completely exhausted, and many analysts point to their possible strengthening against the backdrop of consumer activity and rising wages. The Bank of England, in turn, demonstrated a softer position at the last meeting. At the same time, no changes in monetary policy are expected from the British regulator in the near future, and the main scenario in the market now assumes that the Bank of England will begin to act later than the US Federal Reserve, only closer to autumn. Today, investors are focusing on final statistics on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the US and UK in the fourth quarter of 2023. The US figure is likely to remain unchanged at 3.2%, while UK data were negative, with the national economy declining from 0.3% to -0.2% year-on-year and -0.1% to -0.3% QoQ, justifying analysts’ preliminary estimates and putting pressure on the position of the national currency. Today in the US data on jobless claims and the dynamics of Pending Home Sales in February are also expected.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing uncertain dynamics, consolidating near 0.6530. Activity in the market is gradually decreasing ahead of tomorrow's publication in the US of data on Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index. This indicator is used by the US Federal Reserve when calculating average inflation in the country, so it can significantly affect future forecasts regarding the cost of borrowing. Forecasts suggest weak growth in February from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 2.4% to 2.5% on an annual basis. The Core index is expected to remain unchanged at 2.8%. Macroeconomic statistics from Australia published the day before did not have an impact on the dynamics of the instrument: the Consumer Price Index in February added 3.4%, contrary to forecasts of 3.5%, and Consumer Inflation Expectations for March were revised from 4.5% to 4.3%, while Retail Sales volumes slowed down from 1.1% to 0.3%, while analysts had expected 0.4%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair again shows weak growth, testing 151.35 for a breakout: the yen is holding near its record lows since 1990. At the same time, trading participants again began to actively discuss the possibility of currency interventions by the Bank of Japan, as was the case last year, when the instrument consolidated above the level of 145.00. The national currency received virtually no support after the Japanese regulator abandoned the policy of negative interest rates. This decision was expected, so analysts focused on the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy, which are not clear yet. Bank of Japan officials said they will continue to maintain loose monetary policy and the same volume of purchases in the bond market. On Friday, Japan will present March inflation data in the Tokyo region: the CPI excluding Fresh Food is forecast to adjust from 2.5% to 2.4%. Also, during the day, the publication of February statistics on Retail Sales and Industrial Production are expected. The monthly Industrial Production rate is expected to increase 1.4% from -6.7% in the previous month, while Retail Sales could rise from 2.3% to 3.0%. In addition, tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT 2) investors will pay attention to data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index from the United States: in February the index is expected to adjust from 0.3% to 0.4% in monthly terms and from 2.4% to 2.5% in annual terms.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is showing moderate growth, developing the "bullish" momentum formed in the market in the ultra-short term at the beginning of this week. The growth in demand for gold is supported by expectations of an imminent reduction in interest rates by the world's leading regulators, which will further increase the attractiveness of a safe asset, which, however, does not generate interest income. The situation around the US Federal Reserve remains ambiguous. Earlier, the American regulator refuted concerns about a slower than initially expected decline in borrowing costs this year: as before, markets are counting on three interest rate cuts by 25 basis points each, the first of which is expected in June. Today, the focus of trading participants will be the final statistics on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2023, as well as data on the Initial Jobless Claims. Forecasts suggest that national economic growth will remain at 3.2%, while the number of jobless claims for the week ended March 22 will rise from 210.0 thousand to 215.0 thousand. On Friday, the US will publish data on Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index, which is considered one of the main indicators in the US Federal Reserve's inflation calculation scheme. It is expected that in February the value will adjust from 0.3% to 0.4% in monthly terms and from 2.4% to 2.5% in annual terms, and the core index may decrease slightly from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and remain at the level of 2.8% on an annual basis.