Current trend

During the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing near record highs of 152.00. Trading participants wait for open new long positions, fearing the Bank of Japan’s interference in the market situation. The Bank previously reported that the sharp yen weakening was due to speculative actions. Officials had previously noted the possibility of new currency interventions, which did not support the yen. Let us recall that last month, the department announced a historic abandonment of the policy of negative interest rates, emphasizing that the further monetary policy will remain soft until the achievement of the target inflation levels.

Meanwhile, in February, the total income of employees in the form of wages increased by 1.8%, which coincided with analysts’ forecasts, but below 2.0% previously, overtime pay decreased by 1.00% compared to an increase of 0. 40% in January. The Economic Observers Index fell from 51.3 points to 49.8 points in March, although analysts had expected 51.6 points. Tomorrow, the price index for corporate goods is expected to be published, and given the positive forecasts for a change of 0.3% MoM and 0.8% YoY, the yen may keep its current position.

The US currency is trading at 103.80 in the USDX, trying to recover yesterday’s losses. After strong labor market data on Friday, the March sector trend index corrected from 111.85 points to 112.84 points. However, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Neel Kashkari confirmed the US Fed’s intentions to keep interest rates unchanged at least one more time, confirming the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Instrument forecasts pointing to a 100.0% probability of maintaining the indicator.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument moves within the ascending channel 155.00–149.00 and forms a sideways correction, holding around the historical high of 151.90.

Technical indicators hold a buy signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO histogram forms corrective bars in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 152.30, 155.00.

Support levels: 151.00, 149.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 152.30, with the target at 155.00. Stop loss – 151.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 151.00, with the target at 149.00. Stop loss – 152.00.