United States of America

USD is weakening against EUR and GBP but has ambiguous dynamics against JPY.

Investors are preparing for the release of March inflation data on Wednesday, which could have a significant impact on the future policy of the US Federal Reserve: YoYs, the consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise from 3.2% to 3.4%, and the core indicator – to decrease from 3.8% to 3.7%. The implementation of the forecast will mean increased inflationary pressure for the third month in a row and will strengthen the position of supporters of the “hawkish” policy within the regulator, which may persuade officials to keep interest rates at high levels. In this case, the position of the American currency will significantly strengthen. Market participants' confidence that officials will cut borrowing costs for the first time in June is waning: according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), only 49.0% of traders are currently confident in this, while at the end of March 57.0% expected this.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against JPY and USD but weakening against GBP.

In the absence of significant economic releases, the movement of the euro is determined by external factors. Investors are preparing for the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will take place on Thursday. It is expected that the regulator will keep interest rates the same: key at 4.50%, deposit – at 4.40%, margin – at 4.75%, but may hint at the prospects and timing of their reduction. Most experts believe that borrowing costs will decrease for the first time in June, but there is no complete consensus within the regulator on this issue yet. It is also worth noting the publication of the ECB's report on lending in the Eurozone: the document says that last quarter, for the first time in more than two years, European banks relaxed the conditions for approving mortgage loans, but demand for them continued to fall amid high costs of servicing loans and stagnation in the economy.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against its main competitors – EUR, JPY, and USD.

Today, March retail sales data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) was published, which turned out to be positive: sales increased by 3.5%, exceeding the expected growth of 1.8%. Consortium experts note that the Easter holidays led to a significant increase in demand for food, however, in general, the upwards dynamics in sales remains restrained due to bad weather and high inflation: for example, in Q1 2024, food costs increased by 6.8%, and expenses for non-food products decreased by 1.9%.

Japan

JPY is weakening against EUR and GBP but has ambiguous dynamics against USD.

Today, March data on the volume of orders in mechanical engineering was published: the figure decreased again, this time by 8.5%, indicating continued pressure on the industrial sector. It is also worth noting the comments of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who said that the regulator should consider further reducing economic stimulus if inflation continues to rise. This statement was assessed by experts as a signal of further increases in interest rates during this year. The official also stressed that the current growth in wages should stimulate household incomes and consumption growth, as well as improve the country's economic prospects.

Australia

AUD continues to strengthen against its main competitors – EUR, JPY, GBP, and USD.

March business confidence data from the National Australia Bank (NAB) was published today: the business confidence index increased from 0.0 points to 1.0 points, and the current conditions index decreased from 10.0 points to 9.0 points, while the business sales indicator remained at 14.0 points. Thus, the country's economy remains stable, although companies cannot fully restore volumes amid high inflation and interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Also today, statistics on the Westpac consumer sentiment index for April were published: the indicator dropped to -2.8%.

Oil

Oil quotes today are trading in narrow lateral ranges under the influence of a number of opposing factors: their growth is facilitated by the failure of new peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement, but a significant strengthening of prices is held back by the anticipation of the publication of inflation data in the United States for March.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has again voiced his intention to attack the city of Rafah, the last refuge for civilians in Gaza. The implementation of these plans will cause an aggravation of the situation in the region and increase the risks of interruptions in oil supplies. On the other hand, investors fear that signs of accelerating retail price growth will push the US Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a long time and strengthen the dollar's position against alternative assets. During the day, market participants also expect the publication of a weekly report on oil inventories from the American Petroleum Institute (API): they could increase by 2.415 million barrels, which will put additional pressure on the trading instrument.