Current trend

During the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair tested the level of 0.6400 for a breakdown, renewing the lows of November 14 against poor macroeconomic statistics.

In March, the unemployment rate in Australia adjusted from 3.7% to 3.8%, better than the predicted 3.9%, as a result of a decrease in the employment rate by 6.6K compared to 117.6K shown earlier and expectations of 7.2K. The share of the economically active population adjusted from 66.7% to 66.6%, and full employment – to 27.9K, losing 79.4K in February. The Q1 National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence index increased from –6.0 points to –2.0 points.

The American dollar returned to 106.00 in USDX amid initial jobless claims, which amounted to 212.0K like a week earlier, better than the predicted increase to 215.0K. However, the total claims reached 1.812M compared to 1.810M previously. On the other hand, March existing home sales fell from 4.38M to 4.19M, reflecting the poor state of the real estate market.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument falls from the lower border of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 0.6680–0.6500.

Technical indicators are strengthening the sell signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are at a considerable distance from the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram is decreasing in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6440, 0.6570.

Support levels: 0.6360, 0.6270.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the consolidation below 0.6360, with the target at 0.6270. Stop loss – 0.6400. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the consolidation above 0.6440, with the target at 0.6570. Stop loss – 0.6380.