EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics, holding near 1.0765. The day before, April data on business activity in the services sector was published: in Germany, the S&P Global Services PMI dropped from 53.3 points to 53.2 points with neutral forecasts, and in the eurozone as a whole, on the contrary, strengthened from 52.9 points to 53.3 points. Sentix Investor Confidence indicator showed a muted rise from -5.9 points to -3.6 points in May, while the Producer Price Index lost 0.4% in March after -1.1% the month before, while analysts had expected -0.7%, and in annual terms the indicator slowed down the negative dynamics from -8.5% to -7.8%. Today, the focus of investors' attention is on statistics from Germany, where Export volumes in March added 0.9% after -1.6% in the previous month, while experts expected 0.4%, and Imports slowed down from 3.0% to 0.3% with preliminary estimates of -1.0%. As a result, the trade surplus increased from 21.4 billion euros to 22.3 billion euros, against expectations of 22.4 billion euros. At the same time, the volume of Factory Orders in Germany in March decreased by 0.4% after -0.8%, and in annual terms the pace slowed down from -8.8% to -1.9%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is declining slightly, correcting after last week’s strong growth, which led to the renewal of local highs from April 10. The peak of "bullish" activity for the instrument occurred on Friday, when the pound managed to take advantage of the weakness of the American currency amid the publication of the April labor market report. The American economy created only 175.0 thousand new jobs outside the agricultural sector after March data at 315.0 thousand and against the background of forecasts of 243.0 thousand. Average Hourly Earnings slowed down from 0.3% to 0.2% on a monthly basis and from 4.1% to 3.9% on an annual basis, and the Unemployment Rate accelerated from 3.8% to 3.9%. The cooling of the national labor market, which has traditionally remained quite strong despite the restrictive monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, may become another argument in favor of a possible reduction in borrowing costs. However, analysts do not expect quick decisions from the American regulator, focusing more on the autumn months. Today, macroeconomic statistics from the UK are exerting moderate pressure on the pound: Retail Sales volumes from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) decreased by 4.4% in April after growing by 3.2% in the previous month, while analysts expected the positive dynamics to continue at 1.6%. On Thursday, May 9, the results of the Bank of England meeting will be published: at the moment, markets are almost confident that the regulator will unanimously vote to maintain the interest rate at 5.25%.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is consolidating near 0.6010, and also remains in the area of local highs from April 10, updated at the end of last week. Pressure on the position of the American currency on Friday was exerted by the labor market report, which increased pressure on the US Federal Reserve regarding a possible reduction in borrowing costs in the near future. American employers created only 175.0 thousand new jobs outside the agricultural sector, while markets expected 243.0 thousand, and in the previous month their number increased by 315.0 thousand. The Average Hourly Earnings adjusted from 0.3% to 0.2% in monthly terms and from 4.1% to 3.9% in annual terms, and the Unemployment Rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%. Separately, investors drew attention to the sharp decline in the US Services PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) from 51.4 points to 49.4 points, with expectations at 52.0 points. The day before, investors paid attention to the publication of data on the Chinese Services PMI: in April, the indicator adjusted from 52.7 points to 52.5 points, which can still be called a "bullish" factor. In New Zealand, the Commodity Price Index from the ANZ banking group was published, which is a leading indicator of export price inflation: the indicator added 0.5% after -1.3% in the previous month.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing moderate growth, developing the "bullish" momentum formed the day before: the instrument is testing 154.50 for a breakout, while analysts expect the emergence of new drivers for the movement and assess the reasons for the sharp rise in the yen last week. Most of them agree that the Bank of Japan nevertheless used the mechanism of foreign exchange intervention, quite openly warning against speculative actions and arguing that market participants contributed to the weakening of the national currency. However, there has been no official confirmation of intervention from the regulator, so markets evaluate only indirect data. Meanwhile, the US currency is again reversing towards growth, and labor market statistics only put temporary pressure on the instrument. Nonfarm Payrolls slowed down in April from 315.0 thousand to 175.0 thousand against expectations of 243.0 thousand, and the Average Hourly Earnings adjusted from 4.1% to 3.9% in annual terms and from 0.3% to 0.2% on a monthly basis, while the Unemployment Rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%. Today, macroeconomic statistics from Japan are exerting some pressure on the yen’s position. The April Services PMI from the national Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which reflects the total cost of services purchased by companies in key service industries (excluding manufacturing), and is a leading indicator of the Tankan business activity index, decreased from 54.6 points to 54.3 points with neutral forecasts.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair shows mixed trading dynamics, holding near 2320.00. Investors are awaiting the emergence of new drivers for growth, while the instrument is developing a weak technical correction, updating local lows from April 5 last Friday. The American currency came under pressure after the publication of April data on the US labor market. Nonfarm Payrolls decreased from 315.0 thousand to 175.0 thousand, while analysts expected 243.0 thousand. Average Hourly Earnings slowed down from 4.1% to 3.9% in annual terms, confirming existing trends towards reducing inflation risks, and in monthly terms the indicator adjusted from 0.3% to 0.2%. Pressure on the dollar was also exerted by data on Services PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM): the index dropped from 51.4 points to 49.4 points, with a forecast of 52.0 points. Gold, in turn, is supported by persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Negotiations between representatives of Israel and Hamas on a possible ceasefire appear to have failed, after which the Israeli army launched massive attacks on the city of Rafah. Also, the growth in demand for the precious metal is driven by expectations of lower borrowing costs from the world's leading central banks. The European Central Bank (ECB), from which markets expect changes in monetary policy during the June meeting, may be the first one to do so.