Current trend

The USD/CHF pair fell to the area of 0.9069 after the publication of Swiss macroeconomic statistics.

In April, the consumer price index amounted to 0.3% MoM, better than the forecast of 0.1% and the previous value of 0.0%, and reached 1.4% YoY compared to expectations of 1.1% and 1.0% previously. Analysts believe that against falling energy costs and poor demand for services in the domestic market, officials of the Swiss National Bank may begin easing monetary policy at the June meeting but there is a possibility of an increase in the value to prevent the development of a negative trend.

As a result of the strengthening of the franc, the USD/CHF pair corrected to 0.9015. However, the long-term trend remains upward: the price was unable to overcome the 0.9015 mark, and if it is reached again, long positions, with the target at 0.9142 are relevant; after consolidating above, growth to the October high of 0.9230 is expected. In case of a breakdown of the long-term trend border of 0.9015, you can open short positions, with the target at 0.8878.

The medium-term trend is upward: last week, the quotes reached zone 4 (0.9249–0.9224) and began a correction, within which they are approaching the key trend support 0.8979–0.8955, after the test of which long positions, with the target at the April high of 0.9224 are relevant. A breakdown of the 0.8979–0.8955 zone will change the trend downwards.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.9142, 0.9230, 0.9330.

Support levels: 0.9015, 0.8878.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from 0.9015, with the target at 0.9142 and stop loss 0.8975. Implementation time: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 0.8975, with the target at 0.8878 and stop loss 0.9015.