| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 2300.00 |
| Take Profit | 2250.00, 2187.50 |
| Stop Loss | 2340.00 |
| Key Levels | 2187.50, 2250.00, 2312.50, 2341.00, 2390.00, 2437.50 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 2341.00 |
| Take Profit | 2390.00, 2437.50 |
| Stop Loss | 2310.00 |
| Key Levels | 2187.50, 2250.00, 2312.50, 2341.00, 2390.00, 2437.50 |
Current trend
The XAU/USD pair has stabilized at 2312.50 (Murrey level [5/8]), around which it has been trading for about three weeks under the influence of the opposing factors.
On the one hand, the quotes are under pressure of the risks of continued “hawkish” rhetoric by the US Fed amid rising inflation. The March consumer price index reached 3.5%, exceeding forecasts of 3.4%. At the same time, poor April data did not affect the rhetoric of regulator representatives, who remain cautious in making decisions. Moreover, some members of the regulator, namely, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, admitted that a correction in borrowing costs would occur only next year, and Michelle Bowman said that if inflation accelerated, another tightening of monetary policy was possible. The comments put pressure on alternative assets to the dollar, including precious metals.
On the other hand, a significant drop in prices is hampered by continued tension in the Middle East, where Iran and the United States may enter into the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian HAMAS movement. Against this background, gold acts as a traditional shelter asset investors use to save their funds.
However, the negative monetary factor for metals is currently dominant, and the XAU/USD pair may continue to decline in the medium term.
Support and resistance
The trading instrument is at 2312.50 (Murrey level [5/8]), consolidation below which will allow it to reach the area of 2250.00 (Murrey level [4/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%) and 2187.50 (Murrey level [3/8]). If the quotes consolidate above the middle line of Bollinger bands (2341.00), growth to the area of 2390.00 (Fibonacci correction 0.0%) and 2437.50 (Murrey level [7/8]) may continue.
Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are horizontal, the MACD histogram is preparing to enter the negative zone, and Stochastic is directed upwards.
Resistance levels: 2341.00, 2390.00, 2437.50.
Support levels: 2312.50, 2250.00, 2187.50.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from 2300.00, with the targets at 2250.00, 2187.50, and stop loss 2340.00. Implementation time: 5–7 days.
Long positions may be opened above 2341.00, with the targets at 2390.00, 2437.50, and stop loss 2310.00.
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