EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows flat dynamics during the Asian session, consolidating near 1.0770. The instrument ended last week's trading with only a slight increase, reacting to ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the US and EU. Investors are in no hurry to open new positions before the publication of US inflation statistics on Wednesday, May 15. It is predicted that in April the Consumer Price Index in annual terms will slow down from 3.5% to 3.4%, and in monthly terms - from 0.4% to 0.3%. Core CPI excluding Food and Energy is likely to adjust from 3.8% to 3.6% and from 0.4% to 0.3%, respectively. The implementation of the forecasts will most likely lead to a noticeable decline in the US currency in the ultra-short term, since trading participants may revise their own forecasts regarding the timing of the expected adjustment to the cost of borrowing by the US Federal Reserve. At the moment, the main scenario remains the possibility of an interest rate cut by 25 basis points in September or November. On Wednesday, May 15, the market will receive statistics on the eurozone's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter. Economists expect that the growth rate of the European economy will remain at the same levels (0.3% quarterly and 0.4% annualized). April data on inflation in the region will be presented on Friday: the previous dynamics of the Consumer Price Index is expected to remain at around 0.6% in monthly terms and 2.4% in annual terms.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair shows slight growth, testing 1.2525 for a breakout. The instrument continues to receive moderate support from UK data released last Friday. In particular, the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter in annual terms increased by 0.2% after -0.2% in the previous period, while analysts expected zero dynamics, and in quarterly terms the indicator accelerated by 0.6% after -0.3% a quarter earlier with a forecast of 0.4%. On a monthly basis, GDP gained 0.4%, doubling February's 0.2% growth, while markets were pricing in a slowdown to 0.1%. Meanwhile, Industrial Production in March fell from 1.0% to 0.2% month-on-month and from 1.0% to 0.5% year-on-year, which was better than expectations of -0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. Tomorrow the UK will present labor market statistics for March-April. The Claimant Count Change is expected to increase from 10.9 thousand to 13.9 thousand in April, and Average Earnings Including Bonus may decrease from 5.6% to 5.3%, while the Unemployment Rate in March is likely to be adjusted from 4.2% to 4.3%. In turn, on Wednesday, May 15, the US market will receive inflation data: at the moment, analysts expect a slowdown in consumer price growth from 0.4% to 0.3% in monthly terms and from 3.5% to 3.4% in annual terms, and the Core CPI may be adjusted from 3.8% to 3.6%.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair shows multidirectional dynamics, holding near 0.6000. The instrument is trying to develop the corrective "bearish" impetus formed at the end of last week, but investors are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the United States on inflation on Wednesday, May 15. Core inflation in April is expected to slow down from 3.8% to 3.6% in annual terms and from 0.4% to 0.3% in monthly terms. Also on Wednesday, the market will receive data on the dynamics of Retail Sales. Domestic consumption in the country remains one of the main factors in increasing inflation risks. Analysts expect that in April sales volumes will decrease from 0.7% to 0.4%, and the figure excluding autos may decline from 1.1% to 0.2%. Meanwhile, the instrument was given some support at the beginning of the week by the statistics presented last week. The New Zealand Manufacturing PMI in April showed a moderate increase from 46.8 points to 48.9 points. In turn, data from China published last weekend reflected an acceleration of the Consumer Price Index in April from 0.1% to 0.3% in annual terms and from -1.0% to 0.1% in monthly terms. At the same time, the Producer Price Index remained in the negative zone, only slowing down the decline from -2.8% to -2.5%. In addition, today investors noticed a slight decrease in the Business NZ Performance of Services Index: in April the indicator dropped from 47.2 points to 47.1 points. RBNZ Inflation Expectations for the second quarter were revised from 2.5% to 2.33%, encouraging the regulator to pursue a looser monetary policy in the future.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing moderate growth, developing a relatively confident short-term upward trend formed last week: the instrument is testing 155.85 for a breakout, updating local highs from May 2. At the same time, market activity remains restrained, since key macroeconomic statistics on inflation will be presented in the United States on Wednesday. It is expected that the Consumer Price Index in April will slow down from 3.5% to 3.4% on an annual basis and from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis, and the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy may decline from 3.8% to 3.6% and from 0.4% to 0.3%, respectively. On Thursday, May 16, annual and quarterly data on Japan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter will hit the market: forecasts call for a slowdown of the national economy by 0.4% after growth of 0.1% in the previous period, and the annual figure is likely to contract by 1.5% after rising 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Also, on this day, March statistics on Industrial Production will be presented: analysts expect that the monthly growth rate will remain at the same level of 3.8%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is correcting, retreating from the local highs of April 22, updated at the end of last week. The instrument is testing 2350.00 for a breakdown, while trading participants expect the emergence of new drivers for the movement of quotes. In particular, on Wednesday, May 15, the US will publish April inflation statistics: it is expected that the Consumer Price Index will slow down from 3.5% to 3.4% in annual terms and from 0.4% to 0.3% in monthly terms, and the Core CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices may be adjusted from 3.8% to 3.6% YoY and from 0.4% to 0.3% MoM, respectively. If analysts' forecasts come true or the rate of decline in consumer inflation turns out to be higher than expected, the dollar will be under noticeable pressure, as this will likely lead to a reassessment of the expected timing of the launch of the interest rate reduction program by the US Federal Reserve. For now, investors are still counting on at least two 25 basis point adjustments, the first of which is expected in September or November. Also, on Wednesday, April Retail Sales data will be presented in the US: the indicator is expected to slow down from 0.7% to 0.4%.