Current trend

The XAU/USD pair remained virtually unchanged during the morning session, remaining close to 2330.00. Market activity remains quite low, given that trading floors in the United States are closed to celebrate Juneteenth. Investors are still assessing the results of last week's US Federal Reserve meeting, where monetary policy parameters were left unchanged, but updated interest rate forecasts for the near and long term were presented.

Thus, at the end of 2024, the regulator expects a decrease in the indicator from 5.50% to 5.10%, which significantly exceeds the March estimates of 4.60%. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that inflation has become "sticky" and the risks of its acceleration remain. In this regard, the official refused to name specific dates for the launch of the monetary policy easing program, and the markets left the main scenarios practically unchanged. One of them involves a two-time adjustment of borrowing costs by 25 basis points until the end of the year, starting in September.

On Friday, June statistics on business activity will be published in the United States: it is expected that the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will drop from 51.3 points to 51.0 points, and the Services PMI — from 54.8 points to 53.3 points.

According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in gold fell to 233.9 thousand from 237.3 thousand. The withdrawal of short-term investors from the asset continues: the balance in positions secured by real money for the "bulls" amounted to 189.290 thousand against 11.741 thousand for the "bears", while last week buyers closed 7.988 thousand contracts, and sellers — 4.776 thousand.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is almost constant, remaining rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD indicator is growing, while preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having approached the level of "80", reversed into the horizontal plane, indicating the appearance of ambiguous dynamics in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 2336.50, 2354.65, 2364.04, 2378.39.

Support levels: 2320.00, 2300.00, 2285.00, 2265.52.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 2336.50 with the target of 2364.04. Stop-loss — 2320.00. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 2336.50 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 2320.00 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 2285.00. Stop-loss — 2336.50.