Financial markets anticipate the UK headline CPI rose 2% YoY, while the core annual reading is foreseen at 3.5%. Those figures would be an improvement from April readings, when the CPI rose 2.3%, while the core reading, excluding volatile food and energy prices, hit 3.9%. 

However, May monthly inflation is seen up 0.4%, following the 0.3% posted in the previous month. It may not be a really worrisome outcome, yet markets may be discouraged by an uptick in price pressures, even if it’s this low. 

The BoE´s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged at a multi-year high of 5.25% when it met in May, although two out of the nine voting members preferred to trim rates by 25 basis points (bps).

"We are not yet at a point where we can cut the base rate," BoE Governor Andrew Bailed said, although policymakers acknowledged the steady decline in inflation. The central bank economic projections released alongside the May meeting showed consumer inflation is projected to approach the 2% target in the near term but could edge up later in the year due to the unwinding of energy-related base effects. Policymakers also remarked that service sector inflation remained at 6.0% as of March, more than doubling the BoE’s goal. 

Would a 2% print be enough to trigger a rate cut as soon as this week? That seems tough but not impossible. Market players may pay attention to headline figures, but policymakers will rather focus on service inflation. A sharp drop in the latest, alongside headline readings in line with expectations, will definitely lift the odds of an interest rate cut in June. Before the inflation-data release, however, market participants believe the BoE will keep rates on hold for one more time.