United States of America

USD is strengthening against EUR, JPY, and GBP.

The positive dynamics are developing despite poor reports from the labor and real estate markets: in May, the number of building permits fell by 3.8%, from 1.440M to 1.386M, the low since February 2023, while the average stable level of the indicator is above 1.500M permits per month. The volume of new home construction fell by 5.5%, from 1.352M to 1.277M, the minimum of the last eight months, against the average value of 1.600M.

Eurozone

EUR is declining against GBP, JPY, and USD.

In June, the French manufacturing PMI fell from 46.4 to 45.3 and the service PMI from 49.3 to 48.8, while the German manufacturing PMI fell from 45.4 to 43.4 and the service PMI from 54.2 to 53.5, respectively, leading to a correction in the EU manufacturing PMI 47.3 to 45.6 and in the service PMI from 53.2 to 52.6. As a result, the composite S&P Global PMI changed from 52.2 to 50.8.

United Kingdom

GBP is falling against USD but is strengthening against EUR and JPY.

The currency is supported by the decision of the Bank of England officials to keep the interest rate at 5.25%, as well as by the May macroeconomic statistics. The core retail sales index rose from –1.4% to 2.9% MoM and from –2.5% to 1.2% YoY, while their volume changed from –1.8% to 2.9% MoM and from –2.3% to 1.3% YoY. Given the stable PMI in the leading sectors, we can expect the development of positive dynamics of the quotes soon.

Japan

JPY is declining against USD and GBP but is strengthening against EUR.

The currency is approaching the historical low of 160.00, facilitated by macroeconomic statistics and the upward dynamics of the American dollar. The May national consumer price index increased from 2.2% to 2.5% YoY and from 0.4% to 0.5% MoM. In addition, the June manufacturing PMI fell from 50.4 points to 50.1 points and the service PMI from 53.8 points to 49.8 points, entering the red zone.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against EUR and falling against GBP, JPY, and USD.

The June Markit manufacturing PMI fell from 49.7 points to 47.5 points, interrupting a three-month positive trend, and the service PMI from 52.5 points to 50.6 points, continuing the negative trend for the fifth month. The indicator is approaching the red zone, putting pressure on the currency.

Oil

Oil prices are showing upward dynamics.

According to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) report, this week, commercial oil reserves decreased from 3.700M barrels to –2.547M barrels, almost justifying the forecasts of –2.800M barrels. Recently, representatives of US President Joe Biden’s administration said that they are considering releasing oil from the strategic reserve in response to the oil price growth. The price to start selling oil was not specified, so investors cautiously are keeping long positions on the trading instrument. Now, the indicator is 370.912M barrels, having increased by 0.368M barrels in two weeks since the beginning of June.