Current trend

The XAG/USD pair declines slightly during the morning session on June 27, holding near 28.70. Activity in the market remains quite low, as trading participants expect the emergence of new drivers of movement.

In particular, today the final estimates for US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter will be published: analysts expect that the figure will be revised from 1.3% to 1.4%. In addition, the market will receive May data on Durable Goods Orders: it is expected that their number will decrease by 0.1% after growing by 0.6% in the previous month, and the Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation will slow down from 0.4% to 0.2%. Investors will also pay attention to May statistics on Pending Home Sales, which are likely to increase 2.5% after –7.7% in the previous month. During the day, data on jobless claims will be published: it is expected that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 21 will decrease from 238.0 thousand to 236.0 thousand, and Continuing ones (for the week ended June 14) — from 1.828 million to 1.820 million.

On Friday at 14:30 (GMT 2), May statistics on the Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index, which is a key inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve, will be presented. The Core annual rate is forecast to slow from 2.8% to 2.6% and on a monthly basis from 0.2% to 0.1%. Reducing inflation risks in the country may allow the regulator to implement plans to ease monetary policy: officials expect that the interest rate in 2024 may be reduced from 5.50% to 5.10%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate quite active decrease. The price range expands from below, making way for new local lows for the "bears". MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). The indicator is actively trying to consolidate below the zero level. Stochastic retains a steady downtrend but is located in close proximity to its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold silver in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 29.00, 29.35, 29.84, 30.15.

Support levels: 28.56, 28.00, 27.60, 27.33.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 28.56 with the target at 27.60. Stop-loss — 29.00. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 28.56 as from support followed by a breakout of 29.00 may become a signal for opening new long positions with the target at 29.84. Stop-loss — 28.56.