Current trend

Brent Crude Oil prices show ambiguous dynamics, holding near the 84.25 mark: at the beginning of the week, the dynamics were positive. Then, it lost the gained positions amid discussions about monetary policy adjustments in the US and other countries. In addition, the quotes are supported by reports of the likely imminent start of a military operation by Israeli troops against the Lebanese organization Hezbollah, which could disrupt transport logistics in the Red Sea again. Thus, the Houthi group recently sank two ships and captured another.

Yesterday, the asset was under pressure of strong data on the dynamics of oil and oil product inventories. According to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), for the week of June 21, the indicator increased from –2.547M barrels to 3.591M barrels, although analysts expected –3.000M barrels. Earlier, a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) reflected an increase in the value for the week of June 20 by 0.914M barrels after 2.264M barrels for the previous reporting period, while experts expected a decrease of 3.000M barrels. Today at 14:30 (GMT 2), the US final statistics on the dynamics of the gross domestic product (GDP) are due. According to preliminary estimates, the Q1 indicator will change from 1.3% to 1.4%. In addition, traders will pay attention to durable goods orders and initial jobless claims, which may adjust from 238.0K to 236.0K. Continuous claims may change from 1.828M to 1.82M.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are growing moderately: the price range is narrowing, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. MACD is declining, keeping a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is quickly approaching the lows, indicating that the trading instrument may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 84.64, 85.34, 86.00, 87.00.

Support levels: 84.00, 83.14, 82.40, 82.00.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 84.00, with the target at 82.00. Stop loss — 85.00. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 84.64, with the target at 86.00. Stop loss — 84.00.