inflation na ginagarantiyahan ang rate holding ng Banxico
- Ang Hunyo sa kalagitnaan ng buwan ng mga presyo ng consumer ng Mexico ay tumaas sa itaas ng mga pagtatantya, na malamang na humadlang sa Banxico mula sa pagpapagaan ng patakaran, noong Hunyo 27.
- Ang headline inflation ay tumalon mula sa 4.70% na inaasahan sa 4.78% YoY, kahit na ang mga pangunahing presyo ay bumaba mula sa 4.31% hanggang 4.17% YoY.
- Ang survey ng Citibanamex ay nagpakita na ang mga ekonomista ay nagpresyo ng mas kaunting mga pagbawas sa rate ng sentral na bangko, tinatantya ang mga rate ay ibababa sa 10.25% sa 2024, mula sa 10.00%. Tungkol sa USD/MXN, tinatantya ng pinagkasunduan na ang halaga ng palitan ay magtatapos sa taon sa 18.70, mula sa 18.00 sa nakaraang ulat.
- Tungkol sa paglago ng ekonomiya, binago ng consensus ang Gross Domestic Product (GDP) para sa 2024 pababa mula 2.2% hanggang 2.1% YoY.
- Ang pandiwang interbensyon ng Banxico noong nakaraang linggo ay nagpatibay sa Mexican Peso habang ang USD/MXN ay pumalo sa 11-araw na mababang. Gayunpaman, ang mga hawkish na komento ng Fed ay nagtimbang sa umuusbong na pera sa merkado.
- Ang CME FedWatch Tool ay nagpapakita ng mga logro para sa 25-basis-point Fed rate cut sa 59.5%, pababa mula sa 61.1% noong nakaraang Lunes.
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