| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.6715 |
| Take Profit | 0.6775, 0.6835 |
| Stop Loss | 0.6670 |
| Key Levels | 0.6469, 0.6530, 0.6591, 0.6713, 0.6775, 0.6835 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.6590 |
| Take Profit | 0.6530, 0.6469 |
| Stop Loss | 0.6640 |
| Key Levels | 0.6469, 0.6530, 0.6591, 0.6713, 0.6775, 0.6835 |
Current trend
During the week, the AUD/USD pair traded around the middle line of Bollinger bands (0.6640), making unsuccessful attempts to grow amid uncertainty regarding the monetary policy of both the US Fed and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
In May, the Australian average weighted consumer price index corrected from 3.6% to 4.0%, causing experts to fear a new interest rate hike in August. These data supported the national currency. However, the positive dynamics stopped when the deputy head of the regulator, Andrew Houser, said it would be a serious mistake to make decisions based on one inflation report.
The AUD/USD positions are under pressure as investors are waiting for the US core personal consumption expenditure index at 14:30 (GMT 2). The indicator may decline from 0.2% to 0.1% MoM in May and from 2.8% to 2.6% YoY, which could prompt the US Fed officials to turn “dovish” in September. However, if the indicator remains flat or increases, the likelihood of a borrowing cost adjustment this year will be reduced, weighing on assets other than the American dollar.
Support and resistance
The trading instrument has been trading in the range of 0.6713–0.6591 (Murrey level [6/8]–[4/8]) for about two months, and significant movement is possible only after leaving it. In case of a breakout of 0.6713 (Murrey level [6/8]), growth will continue to the area of 0.6775 (Murrey level [7/8]) and 0.6835 (Murrey level [8/8]). If the price consolidates below 0.6591 (Murrey level [4/8]), it may fall to the area of 0.6530 (Murrey level [3/8]), 0.6469 (Murrey level [2/8]).
Technical indicators do not give a single signal. Bollinger Bands are horizontal, MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone, and Stochastic reverses upward.
Resistance levels: 0.6713, 0.6775, 0.6835.
Support levels: 0.6591, 0.6530, 0.6469.
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened above 0.6713, with the targets of 0.6775, 0.6835, and stop loss of 0.6670. Implementation period: 5–7 days.
Short positions may be opened below 0.6591, with the targets of 0.6530, 0.6469 and stop loss of 0.6640.
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