United States of America

USD is weakening against GBP and has ambiguous dynamics against EUR and JPY.

The May core price index of personal consumption expenditures adjusted from 0.3% to 0.1% MoM and from 2.8% to 2.6% YoY, meeting experts’ expectations. Inflation is slowing, against which the US Fed officials may move to easing monetary policy in September. Analysts expect two interest rate cuts this year of 25 basis points. In addition, in May, personal income grew by 0.5% instead of the expected 0.4%, and expenditure by 0.2% compared to 0.3%.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against GBP and JPY but has ambiguous dynamics against USD.

The June, the number of unemployed in Germany increased by 19.0K, exceeding the forecast of 14.0K, and the unemployment rate by 6.0% instead of 5.9%. Experts note the weakness of the German labor market, and companies are still cautious in hiring new employees, which negatively affects the state of the country’s economy. According to the May consumer survey conducted by analysts of the European Central Bank (ECB), most respondents expect that next year the average inflation will be 2.8% instead of 2.9%, as previously expected, and in the three years — 2.3% against 2.4%. In the next 12 months, citizens expect economic growth to accelerate by 0.8%, and the unemployment rate — by 10.7%.

United Kingdom

GBP is weakening against JPY but strengthening against EUR and USD. In the first quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.3% instead of 0.2% — YoY, and by 0.7% compared to the expected 0.6% — quarter-on-quarter, which was the highest among all G7 countries. Real household income adjusted by 0.7%, and business investment — by 0.5%, less than the forecast of 0.9%. Experts believe that these statistics may influence the actions of Bank of England officials, who are unlikely to refuse to cut the interest rate this year but may ease monetary policy more slowly than expected.

Japan

JPY is strengthening against EUR and GBP but has ambiguous dynamics against USD. In June, the Tokyo CPI rose from 2.2% to 2.3% YoY, while the core figure rose from 1.9% to 2.1%, raising the possibility of further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan. Experts believe that such measures could be taken next month, and the weakness of the yen will prevent inflation from falling below the target level of 2.0%. In addition, the May industrial production corrected by 2.8%, after falling by 0.9% the previous month due to acceleration in the automobile industry, which allows investors to hope for a gradual recovery of the national economy.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against EUR, JPY, GBP, and USD.

In May, the volume of mortgage lending corrected from 0.5% to 0.4%, as did the indicator in the private sector. In addition, according to renewed statistics from the Australian government, the budget surplus for the first eleven months of the current financial year amounted to 18.2B Australian dollars, which is due to a significant increase in corporate tax revenues.

Oil

The morning growth of oil prices has given way to a decline.

Despite the relative stability during the day, the medium-term fundamental background remains positive for the market. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region remain, increasing the risks of disruptions in the supply of raw materials, and inflation in the United States is slowing, increasing the likelihood of the US Fed starting to cut interest rates in the autumn months, which will lead to a weakening of pressure on American consumers and an increase in demand for fuel in the leading world economy. In these conditions, the resumption of growth in prices for black gold seems to be the most likely scenario.