• GBP/USD briefly broke above 1.2700 before slumping back to opening bids.
• US data sparks rate cut hopes, then recession fears.
• Investor confidence jolted by US election risks, volatility ensues.

GBP/USD rallied briefly above the 1.2700 handle on Monday before US markets knocked back investor confidence, sparking a risk-off bid into the US Dollar and dragging Cable back down to the day’s opening bids near 1.2650.

US data broadly missed the mark. US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures declined in June, falling to 48.5 from 48.7 and entirely missing the forecast increase to 49.1. US ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid also declined sharply in June, falling to 52.1 from the previous 57.0, falling even further beyond the forecast decline to 55.9.

US markets were abruptly jolted into fresh risk concerns over the upcoming Presidential election slated for November. A recent public debate left the waters murky on who the clear frontrunner would be, and the US Supreme Court released a ruling on Monday stating that courts have limited capacity to levy criminal charges against sitting Presidents.

The UK has a thin economic data docket this week, though GBP traders will be keeping an eye out for Parliamentary elections on the book for Thursday. On the US side, investors will be looking ahead to Tuesday’s appearance from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, followed by ADP Employment Change figures on Wednesday and Friday’s latest iteration of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Average Hourly Earnings for June.