Current trend

The AUD/USD pair has been trading in the range of 0.6575–0.6700 for the third month, waiting for a driver to set a trend.

In June, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI amounted to 50.9 points, below the forecast of 51.4 points, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI was 48.5 points, below the expected 49.2 points. Nevertheless, the dollar strengthened against major currencies amid the upcoming US Fed meeting on July 31, where the interest rate may remain at 5.50%.

Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting minutes were published. At the last meeting on June 17–18, the board of governors noted the risks of increasing inflation, and the Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) was below experts’ expectations. The officials agreed that the data was insufficient to change their inflation estimate of the return to the target by 2026, so they left the cost of borrowing at 4.35%. The regulator’s report could have a positive effect on the Australian dollar in the medium term.

Support and resistance

The long-term trend is upward. The price has traded with the 0.6575–0.6700 channel for the third month. In June, it tested the lower border of the range and then the upper one, after which it continued to move in the middle. After a breakout of 0.6700, a test of 0.6860 is likely. In the case of a decline to 0.6575, a test of 0.6490 is possible.

The medium-term trend is upward. After a breakout of zone 2 (0.6666–0.6652) in mid-May, the next purchase target was zone 3 (0.6811–0.6797), and at the beginning of June, the price approached the key trend support area of ​​0.6569–0.6554, where it reversed upwards. Currently, the quotes are below the May high and above the trend support level. After growth and consolidation above 0.6712, the price may reach zone 3. Otherwise, it may rest the trend support area.

Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6860.

Support levels: 0.6575, 0.6490.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from 0.6575, with the target at 0.6700 and stop loss 0.6535. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 0.6535, with the target at 0.6450 and stop loss 0.6575.